埃博拉病可能已扩散到非洲以外。卫生当局如何应对？
Ebola may have spread beyond Africa. How are health aut…
Three experts explain how the rare Bundibugyo strain of Ebola may have crossed continents.
三位专家解释了罕见的邦迪布吉奥埃博拉毒株如何可能跨越大陆。
The latest Ebola outbreak is showing no signs of slowing.
最新的埃博拉疫情没有减缓的迹象。
On April 24, the first suspected case of the rare Bundibugyo strain of Ebola was detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) . On May 17, the World Health Organisation declared the outbreak a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”.
4月24日，刚果民主共和国（DRC）首次检测到罕见的邦迪布吉奥（Bundibugyo）毒株埃博拉疑似病例。5月17日，世界卫生组织宣布此次疫情为“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件”。
The current Ebola outbreak is the third-largest in world history, with 906 suspected cases and 223 deaths in the DRC alone as of 27 May.
截至5月27日，当前的埃博拉疫情是世界历史上第三大疫情，仅在刚果民主共和国就有906例疑似病例和223例死亡病例。
And it may have spread to other continents. Health authorities are now investigating a suspected case in Italy, and two possible cases in Brazil. All three are believed to be travellers returning from either the DRC or Uganda. One American man who tested positive for Ebola is currently being treated in Germany.
它可能已经传播到其他大陆。卫生当局目前正在调查意大利的一个疑似病例，以及巴西的两个可能病例。这三个病例都被认为是从刚果民主共和国或乌干达返回的旅行者。一名检测出埃博拉阳性的美国男子目前正在德国接受治疗。
As concerns grow, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations has committed more than A$86 million in funding to fast-track the development of three potential vaccines, targeting the Bundibugyo strain.
随着担忧加剧，流行病预防创新联盟已承诺投入超过8600万澳元资金，加速开发针对邦迪布吉奥毒株的三种潜在疫苗。
But in the meantime, could this outbreak spread further? And how concerned should we be?
但与此同时，这场疫情是否会进一步蔓延？我们应该有多担心？
A deadly virus
一种致命病毒
Ebola is a rare but potentially fatal virus that mainly spreads through direct contact with the bodily fluids – such as blood, faeces and vomit – of an infected person.
埃博拉是一种罕见但可能致命的病毒，主要通过与感染者的体液（如血液、粪便和呕吐物）直接接触传播。
Early symptoms of Ebola include sore throat, headaches, fever, fatigue and body pain. Severe Ebola cases can cause skin rashes, shortness of breath, vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain and seizures.
埃博拉的早期症状包括喉咙痛、头痛、发烧、疲劳和全身疼痛。严重的埃博拉病例可能引起皮疹、呼吸急促、呕吐、腹泻、腹痛和癫痫发作。
Ebola was first identified in humans in 1976. Since then, there have been more than 40 outbreaks around the world, with the majority occurring in African countries.
埃博拉于1976年首次在人类中被发现。从那时起，全球爆发了40多次疫情，其中大部分发生在非洲国家。
The current outbreak is the third ever to be caused by the rare Bundibugyo strain. The majority of past outbreaks were driven by the more deadly Zaire strain, which kills up to 90% of people compared to up to 34% for Bundibugyo.
当前的疫情是由罕见的邦迪布吉约毒株引起的第三次爆发。过去的大多数疫情是由毒性更强的扎伊尔毒株引起的，该毒株的致死率高达90%，而邦迪布吉约毒株的致死率最高为34%。
What is driving this latest outbreak?
驱动这次最新疫情的是什么？
The factors driving this latest outbreak also contributed to the devastating West African outbreak of 2014-16, where more than 11,000 people died.
驱动此次最新疫情的因素，也促成了2014-16年西非毁灭性疫情，当时死亡人数超过11,000人。
In both outbreaks, the virus had been circulating for months before an outbreak was declared, and initial cases had non-specific symptoms.
在两次疫情中，病毒在宣布爆发之前已经循环了数月，最初的病例表现出非特异性症状。
Both outbreaks also rapidly spread in urban areas. Transmission in health-care settings is another common factor.
两次疫情在城市地区也迅速传播。医疗机构内的传播是另一个常见因素。
Political instability and social unrest also contributed to both outbreaks. Most recently in the DRC, crowds have set fire to hospital tents, prompting some patients to flee isolation wards.
政治不稳定和社会动荡也促成了两次疫情。最近在刚果（金），人群纵火烧毁了医院帐篷，导致一些患者逃离了隔离病房。
And certain cultural practices – including traditional burial rituals that often involve handling dead bodies – may have accelerated the spread of both outbreaks.
此外，某些文化习俗——包括通常涉及处理尸体的传统葬礼仪式——也可能加速了两次疫情的传播。
How it crossed continents
如何跨越大陆
Similar to the West African outbreak, this latest Ebola outbreak has spread to other continents through travel.
与西非疫情类似，最新一起埃博拉疫情已通过旅行传播到其他大陆。
Nine cases and one death have already been reported in Uganda, which shares a border with the DRC.
邻国刚果民主共和国（DRC）乌干达已报告了九例病例和一例死亡。
An American man who tested positive for Ebola while working in the DRC, is in a stable condition after being treated in Germany.
一名在美国工作的男子在刚果民主共和国（DRC）检测出埃博拉阳性，并在德国接受治疗后情况稳定。
In Italy, authorities are monitoring a traveller who recently returned from the DRC to the city of Cagliari.
在意大利，当局正在监测一名最近从刚果民主共和国（DRC）返回卡利亚里市的旅行者。
According to some reports, Brazilian authorities are investigating two suspected Ebola cases. They are believed to be two travellers, one who returned from the DRC to São Paulo and the other from Uganda to Rio de Janeiro.
根据一些报道，巴西当局正在调查两例疑似埃博拉病例。据信这两名旅行者分别从刚果民主共和国（DRC）返回圣保罗，以及从乌干达返回里约热内卢。
Importantly, both suspected cases have been diagnosed with other illnesses. The São Paulo patient presented with fever and was later diagnosed with severe meningitis. The Rio de Janeiro patient tested positive for malaria after developing a cough, chills and diarrhoea, but has since tested negative for Ebola.
重要的是，这两例疑似病例都被诊断出患有其他疾病。圣保罗的患者出现发烧，后来被诊断为严重脑膜炎。里约热内卢的患者在出现咳嗽、寒战和腹泻后，检测出疟疾阳性，但此后已检测出埃博拉阴性。
So for now, no Ebola cases have been confirmed in Brazil. But these suspected cases have prompted the country to activate its Ebola safety protocols, including patient isolation, laboratory testing, and epidemiological investigations.
因此，目前巴西尚未确认任何埃博拉病例。但这些疑似病例促使该国启动了埃博拉安全协议，包括患者隔离、实验室检测和流行病学调查。
Meanwhile, several countries have imposed travel restrictions to prevent Ebola from reaching their shores.
同时，多个国家已实施旅行限制，以防止埃博拉传入。
Both the United States and Canada are temporarily restricting entry for travellers from the DRC, Uganda and South Sudan. The US and other countries such as India and Mexico are also strengthening public health screening and disease monitoring measures, particularly at airports. Some countries have mandated a 21-day quarantine period for their citizens returning from the DRC.
美国和加拿大正在暂时限制来自刚果民主共和国（DRC）、乌干达和南苏丹的旅行者的入境。美国以及印度、墨西哥等其他国家也在加强公共卫生筛查和疾病监测措施，尤其是在机场。一些国家已要求从刚果民主共和国（DRC）返回的公民进行为期 21 天的隔离。
Could it spread further, including to Australia?
它是否会进一步传播，包括传播到澳大利亚？
At this stage, the risk of Ebola reaching Australia is very low.
在目前阶段，埃博拉病毒到达澳大利亚的风险非常低。
Australia has not put in place any travel or quarantine requirements for affected countries, but federal health minister Mark Butler says authorities are still monitoring the outbreak “very closely”.
澳大利亚尚未对受影响国家实施任何旅行或检疫要求，但联邦卫生部长马克·巴特勒说，当局仍在“非常密切地”监测疫情。
Based on lessons from past outbreaks, there are three main ways the current Central African outbreak could play out.
根据以往疫情的经验教训，当前的中央非洲疫情可能以三种主要方式发展。
Without effective control measures, cases may surge in the coming months. Some models suggest that by mid-May, up to 1,000 cases had already occurred in the DRC, compared to official figures of about 900 cases. So the actual number of Ebola cases may be much higher than authorities realise.
如果没有有效的控制措施，病例可能会在未来几个月激增。一些模型显示，到五月中旬，刚果民主共和国（DRC）的病例数可能已达到1000例，而官方数据约为900例。因此，实际的埃博拉病例数可能远高于当局的估计。
In a more favorable scenario, a strengthened public health response could bring this latest outbreak under control. This would be possible with continued support from the international community, the rapid development of vaccines and community engagement.
在更有利的场景中，加强公共卫生响应可以控制此次最新疫情。这需要国际社会的持续支持、疫苗的快速开发以及社区参与。
However, the most realistic outcome is cases will continue to rise before authorities successfully contain the current outbreak.
然而，最现实的结果是，在当局成功控制当前疫情之前，病例将继续上升。
Nevertheless, the international community responded much more swiftly to this outbreak, particularly compared to the devastating 2014-16 West African outbreak. That alone may protect us from an outbreak of the same catastrophic scale and cost.
尽管如此，国际社会对此次疫情的反应比对2014-16年西非疫情的反应要迅速得多。仅此一项可能就能保护我们免受同等灾难规模和成本的疫情。
Holly Seale receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and NSW Health. She has previously received funding from Pfizer to present at international conferences.
Holly Seale 获得了国家卫生和医学研究委员会和新南威尔士州卫生部的资助。她此前曾获得辉瑞公司（Pfizer）的资助，参加国际会议。
Abrar Ahmad Chughtai and Md Saiful Islam do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Abrar Ahmad Chughtai 和 Md Saiful Islam 不受任何从本文中受益的公司或组织的雇佣、咨询、拥有股份或获得资金，并且除了其学术任命之外，没有披露任何相关的隶属关系。
