南非的反外族暴力很容易引发：迄今为止还缺乏哪些应对措施？
Anti-foreigner violence in South Africa is easily spark…
Several key actions that could help are not yet on the table, including mobilising other political parties as well as civic society to fight anti-foreigner hysteria.
有几项关键行动尚未提出，包括动员其他政党和公民社会共同对抗反外族歇斯底里情绪。
Threats and deadly conflict over migration are spreading fast in South Africa. This is hugely worrying and could result in widespread injury and killings, as it has in the past.
南非关于移民的威胁和致命冲突正在迅速蔓延。这令人极度担忧，并可能像过去一样导致大范围的人身伤害和杀戮。
The region’s investment prospects could be dimmed too, due to perceptions of political instability.
由于政治不稳定的感知，该地区的投资前景也可能会黯淡。
The need for effective responses is real and urgent. The death toll, while disputed, is rising, and reports of marches, threats, sacking of dwellings and violence are widespread across South Africa.
对有效应对措施的需求是真实且紧迫的。尽管死亡人数存在争议，但伤亡人数正在上升；关于游行、威胁、房屋被劫以及暴力的报道在南非各地普遍存在。
Anti-foreigner hysteria is being driven by online campaigns which appear to be highly organised. They include the use of faked information and graphics.
反外国人歇斯底里情绪正由看似高度有组织的线上运动所推动。这些运动包括使用虚假信息和图像。
It is also being driven by campaign leaders and by politicians who support campaigns to root out foreigners, either actively or simply by justifying the arguments used by the more dangerous activists. The UN secretary general, Amnesty International and several foreign governments, including those of Mozambique, Nigeria and Ghana, have berated South Africa for not responding appropriately to anti-migrant mobilisation.
它还受到运动领导者和支持“清除外国人”运动的政客的影响，无论他们是积极参与还是仅仅通过为更危险的活动家使用的论点辩护来支持这些运动。联合国秘书长、国际特赦组织以及包括莫桑比克、尼日利亚和加纳在内的几个外国政府都批评南非未能对反移民动员做出适当回应。
In a televised address on Sunday 7 May 2026, the country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, outlined various initiatives to lessen the conflicts over migration. But was this a coherent response, or a missed opportunity to make real progress?
在2026年5月7日星期日的电视讲话中，该国总统西里尔·拉马福萨概述了各种旨在减轻移民冲突的举措。但这是否是一个连贯的回应，还是错失了一个实现真正进展的机会？
The core of the response was the five-point plan agreed to by a special cabinet committee meeting last week. The points included a law enforcement crackdown (including intensifying deportations) , establishing dedicated immigration courts, rooting out employment of undocumented workers, securing borders, and tackling corruption (including a reform of identity systems.)
核心是上周一次特别内阁委员会会议商定的“五点计划”。这些要点包括执法打击（包括加强驱逐）、建立专门的移民法庭、根除无证工人的就业、确保边境安全以及打击腐败（包括改革身份系统）。
Ramaphosa admitted that economic conditions and the poor state of many public services explained why people were desperate and that grievances, including grievances about the influx of undocumented migrants, were “real”. Some have interpreted his stance as justifying the association of foreigners with the grievances that poor South Africans have.
拉马福萨承认，经济状况和许多公共服务糟糕的状态解释了人们为何感到绝望，并且诸如对非法移民涌入的不满等积怨是“真实的”。一些人将他的立场解读为合理化了外国人与南非贫困民众的积怨之间的关联。
Based on my work as a political economist in migration governance over the past decade, I know that virtually all the specific actions mentioned in the five parts of the plan had already been announced by the South African government, though not as a concerted platform to address the current crisis. Yet implementation has been painfully slow.
根据我过去十年在移民治理领域的政治经济学工作，我知道计划这五个部分中提到的几乎所有具体行动都曾被南非政府宣布过，只是当时并未作为一个协调一致的平台来应对当前的危机。然而，实施却进展缓慢得令人痛苦。
Clearly, there needs to be urgent and visible follow-through on these commitments. This should include the promise to clamp down on anti-foreigner agitators and those who have wounded or killed people they believed to be foreign. To my knowledge, very few agitators and attackers have been arrested, let alone charged. None of the leaders inciting dangerous actions have been arrested, or even called out by political leaders.
显然，必须对这些承诺进行紧急和可见的跟进。这应该包括承诺打击反外国人煽动者以及那些伤害或杀害了他们认为是外国人的人员。据我所知，很少有煽动者和攻击者被逮捕，更不用说起指控了。没有领导人煽动危险行为的人被逮捕，甚至没有得到政治领导人的谴责。
To help reduce the violence and the perception of risk, a number of additional steps need to be taken. Firstly, the forging of a collective political front of parties in the country against anti-foreigner activities. Secondly, the mobilisation of civic and religious institutions to fight against irresponsible politicking. Third, a renegotiation of colonial-era bilateral labour agreements with South Africa’s five neighbouring countries. And finally, addressing the country’s acute unemployment crisis.
为了帮助减少暴力和风险感知，需要采取一些额外的步骤。首先是国内各政党建立一个反对反外国人活动的集体政治阵线。其次是动员公民和宗教机构来反对不负责任的政治操作。第三是与南非的五个邻国重新谈判殖民时期的双边劳工协议。最后是解决国家的急性失业危机。
Four steps that could make a difference
四个可能带来改变的步骤
Firstly, the head of state – or the head of his political party – should bring together the leaders of all the significant political parties in a forum which commits to agreeing not to incite anti-foreigner sentiment, and also, as a group, condemns such behaviour.
首先，国家元首——或其政党领袖——应召集所有主要政党的领导人举行一个论坛，承诺不煽动反外国人情绪，并作为一个群体谴责此类行为。
Secondly, leaders of civic and religious institution could be encouraged to do the same – to warn against irresponsible politicking. Further than that, religious and community groupings could be encouraged and even assisted by government to drive programmes to include foreigners into the mainstream of South African society in a constructive way.
其次，公民和宗教机构的领导者可以被鼓励做同样的事情——警告不负责任的政治行为。更进一步说，政府可以鼓励甚至协助宗教和社区团体开展项目，以建设性的方式将外国人融入南非社会的主流生活。
There are examples of how to do this in other parts of the world in developed and developing countries. These include South America and other African countries.
在世界其他地区，无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家，都有关于如何做这些的例子。其中包括南美洲和其他非洲国家。
National, provincial and local governments could also drive initiatives to include foreigners into the national community. These could be standalone programmes or in cooperation with civil society institutions.
国家、省级和地方政府也可以推动倡议，将外国人群体纳入国家社区。这些可以是独立的计划，也可以与民间社会机构合作。
Thirdly, there should be a renegotiation of bilateral labour agreements with five neighbouring countries. In a white paper released in 2025 the government committed to establishing employment quotas for South Africans in various sectors of industry. It also committed to the renegotiation of the bilateral deals. The existing agreements are colonial in origin and form. They withhold virtually all labour and social rights from migrant labourers. And they don’t accommodate long-term labour migration contracts, now common in other parts of the world.
第三，应该与五个邻国重新谈判双边劳工协议。在2025年发布的白皮书中，政府承诺为南非人在各个工业部门设立就业配额。它还承诺重新谈判这些双边协议。现有的协议在起源和形式上带有殖民性质。它们几乎剥夺了移民劳工所有的劳动和社会权利。而且它们也无法涵盖当前世界其他地区常见的长期劳工移民合同。
Such reforms could create more manageable as well as fair and equitable systems of migrant labour. South Africa could address its labour needs in a workable way. And the temptation to bypass the system should be lower, with fewer undocumented migrant workers.
此类改革可以建立更易于管理、公平且公正的移民劳工体系。南非可以通过可行的方式满足其劳动力需求。同时，随着非法移民工人减少，绕过系统的诱惑也会降低。
It’s not realistic yet to do away with regional labour migration, but it could be far better managed.
根除区域劳动力迁移目前尚不切实际，但其管理方式可以得到极大的改善。
Finally, Ramaphosa said he’d be sending out envoys “to seek to find sustainable solutions to these challenges”. But this has already been done, more than 20 years ago. South Africa and some of its neighbours agreed to a protocol on the facilitation of the movement of persons in the southern African region. This initiative was negotiated in the Southern African Development Community.
最后，拉马福萨说他将派出特使“以寻找解决这些挑战的可持续方案”。但这早在二十多年前就已经完成了。南非和一些邻国就南部非洲地区人员流动便利化达成了一项议定书。这项倡议是在南部非洲发展共同体（SADC）内协商达成的。
But since the protocol was signed by several heads of state in the region in 2005, there has been no progress. South Africa, its partners and the Southern African Development Community itself are guilty of negligence and should accept that they could have and can do more to avoid crises such as the present one.
但是，自该协议于2005年由该地区多个国家元首签署以来，就没有任何进展。南非、其伙伴以及南部非洲发展共同体本身存在失职，应该承认他们本可以并且能够做更多事情来避免像现在这样的危机。
Poorer South Africans are vulnerable to anti-foreigner mobilisation because of their dire economic circumstances: 32.7% unemployment; 37.8% of people classified as very poor. And public services are often very bad.
由于其严峻的经济状况，贫困的南非人容易受到反外国人动员的影响：失业率为32.7%；有37.8%的人被归类为极度贫困。 而且公共服务往往非常糟糕。
More growth and more jobs must dampen the powder-keg that is so easily sparked.
更多的增长和更多的工作岗位必须平息那个极易引爆的火药桶。
But even before that is achieved, there is a great deal that could be done to eliminate the spark itself – tensions over migration.
但在实现这一点之前，还有很多可以做来消除火花本身——即关于移民的紧张局势。
Alan Hirsch receives research funding from the New South Institute.
艾伦·赫希从新南研究所获得研究资金。
