من “بريكست” إلى “بريجريت”: بعد عشر سنوات، لا تزال المرارة تسيطر على تصويت المملكة المتحدة بالخروج من الاتحاد الأوروبي.

On June 23 2016, a majority of Britons chose to leave the European Union after a referendum campaign driven by the promises of supporters of the “Leave” camp, spearheaded by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. Built around the slogan “Take Back Control”, the pro-Brexit campaign promised to restore the country’s sovereignty, regain control over migration flows, and boost economic prosperity. Ten years on, hopes have given way to a bitter sense of disillusion that the British refer to as “Bregret”, and it is a divided, weakened, disenchanted country who is about to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the referendum.

The Brexit shock

There are few events in a country’s national history that constitute such an immense and profound shock as Brexit. The announcement of the results, that indicated a 51.9% victory for the “Leave” camp, sent shockwaves across the world. After 43 years of a relationship that was often turbulent and confrontational, the United Kingdom decided to leave the European Union and open a new chapter in its history.

The reasons for the shock were manifold: first, it was an unprecedented event that raised many uncertainties and fears about the future of the United Kingdom and the European Union alike; the shock was also explained by the completely unexpected nature of the victory, given that the main polling institutes were predicting a close election, giving the “Remain” camp a slight edge; finally, the vote in favour of Brexit represented a political and ideological victory for Nigel Farage, the then leader of the far right populist United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) which was fiercely hostile to the European Union, immigration and multiculturalism.

Previously considered more of an outsider, Nigel Farage then went on to become a central figure in the British political landscape, unanimously recognised as the main architect of Brexit. His campaign themes – which revolved primarily around the fight against immigration, restoring national sovereignty, and defending British national identity – emerged as the dominant themes in the national debate. Boris Johnson, another central figure in the “Leave” campaign and future prime minister (2019-2022) , also contributed to the rise of populist ideas by placing them at the very heart of the Conservative Party.

Brexit thus normalised and mainstreamed populist discourse, which had long remained on the fringes of the public sphere, contributing to an unprecedented dynamic for the far right and a major recomposition in British political life. This is the great irony of this referendum: originally put forward by David Cameron in 2013 when he was prime minister to strengthen his authority over the Conservative Party and stem the rise of UKIP, the referendum had the exact opposite effect.

Not only did the Leave vote precipitate Cameron’s downfall, but, above all, it contributed to major political upheavals characterised by the erosion of the two traditional parties, the overwhelming rise of the far right and the polarisation of public debate around questions of immigration and national identity. The referendum was supposed to appease and unify the country; on the contrary, it deeply destabilised and divided it.

Bitter tomorrows: the disillusions of Brexit

A few hours after the announcement of the results and while euphoria was still strong among the supporters of the “Leave” camp, a first interview with Nigel Farage on the ITV Good Morning Britain program caused general astonishment. He told the two journalists that the promise to pay the amount of the contribution to the European budget to the budget of the National Health Service (NHS) – the British public health service – will “probably not be delivered”.

By reneging on his campaign’s key promise, Farage was betraying a commitment that weighed heavily in many voters’ decision to vote for the “Leave” camp. The NHS, set up after World War II to ensure that all Britons would have universal access to health care “from the cradle to the grave”, is an iconic pillar of the welfare state. However, multiple reforms to make it less expensive and more effective have seriously weakened it and it is now facing many problems, including chronic underfunding, a shortage of staff, or excessively long waiting delays.

Aware of the NHS’s place in the hearts of the British people, the pro-Leave campaigners heavily promoted the argument that, in the event of an exit from the EU, the money previously allocated to the EU budget would be channelled directly into funding the NHS. Boris Johnson criss-crossing the country in his red bus bearing the slogan “We send the EU £350 million a week, let’s fund our NHS instead” was one of the campaign’s most emblematic images.

Inevitably, this argument struck a chord with a large section of the British electorate, who were concerned about the decline of such a national institution. Nigel Farage’s sudden U-turn felt like a massive betrayal and highlighted, from the very first hours following the vote, the gap between promises and reality.

The other major theme of the pro-Leave campaign was the fight against immigration. On this point, too, the gap between promises and reality led to a deep resentment among voters.

For years, Nigel Farage had been repeating that because of its membership of the European Union, which advocates the principle of open borders and free movement of people, the UK lacked the capacity to control its borders or to prevent mass immigration. A few days before the referendum, Farage unveiled a campaign poster called ‘Breaking Point’ which showed a crowd of migrants from the Middle East – exclusively men – gathered at the Croatian-Serbian border like ready to “invade” Europe. The caption on the poster read, “The EU has failed us all.”

Following the outcry caused by the poster, UKIP was forced to remove it immediately. But the argument had a major impact in a country where immigration – especially from Muslim countries – topped British concerns. Farage’s campaign strategy also consisted in presenting the vote for Brexit as an identity and civilisational issue by presenting immigration – encouraged according to him by the European elites – as an existential threat to British identity and the nation’s future.

The victory of Brexit has been partly analysed as the victory of gloomy passions – fear of others, hostility toward foreigners, resentment against multiculturalism – and interpreted as a sign of a growingly inward-looking country. But while the wish of much of the pro-Brexit electorate was to see the country being totally closed to foreigners, that was far from the case. Indeed, even after the United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 31 2020, immigration figures continued to rise, reaching an absolute record in March 2023, with net migration approaching one million. For a large part of the public opinion hostile to immigration, these figures gave the impression that immigration was out-of-control and that governments were powerless in the face of migration flows, reinforcing anger and resentment toward political elites.

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Another main promise of the pro-Leave campaign turned out to be a failure. In this context, and if you add to that sluggish economic growth and rampant inflation, it is not surprising that the latest polls indicate that a majority of Britons – about 56% – say they regret leaving the European Union.

A broken society

At a time when the British are about to commemorate the ten years of the vote in favour of Brexit, feelings of regret, bitterness and betrayal prevail among the public. These sentiments fuel immense anger against political elites, resulting in a loss of confidence in both traditional parties and an unprecedented rise for the far right party Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage.

Brexit alone is not to blame for all of the UK’s woes: the health crisis linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine also partly explain the economic problems the country is facing. However, it is Brexit that has split the population into two opposing – even hostile – camps, which clash over issues ranging from immigration and ethnic and cultural diversity to the definition of national identity. These divisions have created the conditions for the emergence of genuine culture wars, which, a decade after the referendum, continue to tear British society apart.

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Laëtitia Langlois ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.