
在调解美伊和平谈判的过程中,巴基斯坦正在展示其地缘政治实力
In mediating the US-Iran peace talks, Pakistan is flexi…
Pakistan is using shared history – and plenty of friends in high places – to bring the war to an end. Here why it’s had the sway to do it.
巴基斯坦正在利用共同的历史——以及许多高层的朋友——来结束战争。以下是它拥有这种影响力(或:它有能力做到这一点)的原因。
When news of the fragile ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran first broke, it came via a post on X by Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif.
当美国、以色列和伊朗之间脆弱的停火消息首次传出时,是通过巴基斯坦总理谢赫巴兹·谢里夫在X上发布的一篇帖子。
Securing such a big diplomatic win is highly significant for Pakistan, irrespective of how the agreement has since been tested.
无论该协议后续如何考验,取得如此重大的外交胜利对巴基斯坦都意义重大。
Pakistan will remain central to ongoing peace negotiations, with talks between the parties being held in the country on April 10.
巴基斯坦仍将是正在进行的和平谈判的中心,各方将于4月10日在该国举行会谈。
So how did Pakistan manage to bring the parties together? It harnessed long-running relationships, shared histories and security agreements to flex its diplomatic muscles.
那么,巴基斯坦是如何促成各方会面的呢?它利用了长期关系、共同历史和安全协议,展示了其外交实力。
Pakistan and Iran go back a long way
巴基斯坦和伊朗的历史渊源深厚
Pakistan and Iran have a long history as friends and allies. Sharing more than 900 kilometres of border, the countries have been involved in dispute mediation for one another since Pakistan’s creation in 1947.
巴基斯坦和伊朗有着悠久的友谊和盟友历史。两国共享超过900公里的边境,自巴基斯坦于1947年创建以来,两国一直互相参与争端调解。
During Iran’s monarchical period, which ended in 1979, Pakistan relied on Iran’s mediation in its disputes with Afghanistan, and active support in Pakistan’s wars with India in 1965 and 1971.
在伊朗君主制时期(该时期于1979年结束),巴基斯坦曾依赖伊朗在与阿富汗的争端中进行调解,并在1965年和1971年与印度交战时获得积极支持。
But the relationship has not been free of challenges. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Z A Bhutto, according to some sources on the ground, resented the Iranian Shah’s overbearing attitude.
但这段关系并非没有挑战。根据一些当地消息来源,巴基斯坦总理Z A·布图对伊朗沙阿的专横态度心怀不满。
The closeness has held since the Islamic regime took over. With nearly 20% of Pakistan’s population being comprised of Shia Muslims, the dominant form of Islam in Iran, there’s long been a close relationship between those Pakistani Muslims and the Iranian regime.
自伊斯兰政权掌权以来,这种亲近关系一直持续着。由于巴基斯坦近20%的人口是什叶派穆斯林,而什叶派是伊朗主要的伊斯兰教形式,因此巴基斯坦的穆斯林群体与伊朗政权之间长期保持着密切关系。
Iran has used these communities to spread their version of Islam and politics, but it has walked a fine line. The regime has ensured tensions do not exceed beyond certain point where the Pakistani government considers it to be a destabilising factor and a threat to Pakistan’s security.
伊朗利用这些社区传播其版本的伊斯兰教和政治理念,但它始终走在一条微妙的钢丝上。该政权确保紧张局势不会超过巴基斯坦政府认为具有破坏性因素和威胁巴基斯坦安全的某个临界点。
Because of this shared history and the geographic proximity, the Iranian regime is at least willing to listen to Pakistan.
由于这段共同的历史和地理上的邻近,伊朗政权至少愿意倾听巴基斯坦的意见。
Eyeing regional and national security
关注区域和国家安全
This is particularly so because of Pakistan’s own security situation, especially in the event that a weakened or fragmented Iran would result in the emergence of multiple smaller states.
这尤其是因为巴基斯坦自身的安全局势,特别是如果一个衰弱或分裂的伊朗会导致多个小型国家的出现。
Pakistan’s geographically largest province, Balochistan, has been experiencing renewed militancy spearheaded by separatist group the Baloch Liberation Army. The militants have attacked multiple military targets, law enforcement agencies and public servants, especially those hailing from the Punjab province (the largest in terms of population and resources).
巴基斯坦地理上最大的省份俾路支省,正经历着由分离主义团体俾路支解放军主导的新一轮武装冲突。这些激进分子袭击了多个军事目标、执法机构和公务人员,尤其是来自旁遮普省(人口和资源最多的省份)的人员。
There has been a growing sense in Pakistan that a weakened or fragmented Iran could further strengthen the appeal of Baloch Liberation Army ideology. The Pakistani government doesn’t want a situation where calls for a greater Balochistan encompass areas on both sides of its border with Iran.
巴基斯坦内部有一种日益增长的担忧,即一个衰弱或分裂的伊朗可能会进一步增强俾路支解放军意识形态的吸引力。巴基斯坦政府不希望“更大的俾路支省”的呼声涵盖其与伊朗边境两侧的地区。
Another consideration is that Pakistan has a nuclear program. The Pakistani government may fear its nuclear arsenal being next in line for targeting by foreign countries, and therefore seek to de-escalate tensions across the region.
另一个考虑因素是巴基斯坦拥有核计划。巴基斯坦政府可能担心其核武库成为外国目标,因此寻求降低整个地区的紧张局势。
It’s also worth noting the potentially precarious position Pakistan finds itself in geographically. The spectre of being sandwiched between an Israeli-controlled Iran, and close Israel ally India, would be something to be avoided.
值得注意的是,巴基斯坦在地理上处于一个潜在不稳定的位置。被夹在以色列控制的伊朗和以色列的亲密盟友印度之间,是需要避免的局面。
It’s likely the Iranian regime is aware of these concerns and appreciates that Pakistan’s mediation is grounded in the latter’s own security concerns. But from an Iranian perspective, that’s hardly a bad thing: it means exploring all possible scenarios to reach a ceasefire and a settlement.
伊朗政权可能了解这些担忧,并赞赏巴基斯坦的调解是基于伊朗自身的安全顾虑。但从伊朗的角度来看,这 hardly 不是一件坏事:这意味着探索所有可能的场景,以达成停火和和解。
Friends in MAGA places
MAGA地区的友人
Pakistan is highly credible with the Trump regime. This is primarily because of the dominant role the Pakistani military has played in shaping the country’s foreign policy. This influence has existed for almost 80 years, but has ramped up recently.
巴基斯坦与特朗普政权关系密切。这主要归功于巴基斯坦军方在塑造国家外交政策方面所发挥的主导作用。这种影响力已经存在了近80年,但近年来有所增强。
In 2022, General Asim Munir took over as the Chief of Army Staff. He was promoted to the rank of Field Marshal in the wake of Pakistan-Indian “ mini-war ” in May 2025.
2022年,阿西姆·穆尼尔将军接任参谋长。在2025年5月巴巴印“小规模战争”之后,他被提升为陆军元帅。
Currently occupying the position of Chief of Defence Forces with a guaranteed command of the military for the next five years with the possibility of extension until 2035, he has emerged as the strongest army general to have ruled Pakistan in decades.
目前,他担任国防军总长,并保证了未来五年内对军队的指挥权,甚至有可能延长至2035年。这使他成为几十年里统治巴基斯坦的最强大的军方将领。
Munir has established a cordial relationship with US President Donald Trump. He visited the administration twice, including a meeting in the Oval Office. This was before Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had secured even a telephone phone call with the president.
穆尼尔与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普建立了友好关系。他曾两次访问该政府,包括在椭圆形办公室会面。这甚至是在澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯尚未能与总统进行电话通话之前发生的。
Munir has also guided Pakistan’s Gulf policy, particularly the signing of a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia in September 2025. The agreement builds on the decades of a defence relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. It includes the clear articulation that any attack on one is considered an attack on both.
穆尼尔还指导了巴基斯坦的海湾政策,特别是2025年9月与沙特阿拉伯签署了《战略互防协议》。该协议建立在巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯数十年的防务关系之上。它明确规定,任何针对一方的攻击都被视为对双方的攻击。
Though Pakistan is careful to stress that it does not extend a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, the agreement signals regional deterrence and ability of the two states collaborating against opponents.
尽管巴基斯坦谨慎强调它不会将核保护伞延伸到沙特阿拉伯,但该协议标志着两个国家在反对对手方面进行协作的区域威慑能力。
The agreement was followed by a Strategic Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia and the US during the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington in November 2025.
该协议之后,在穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储2025年11月访问华盛顿期间,沙特阿拉伯和美国之间签署了《战略防御协议》。
Effectively, therefore, a tripartite quasi alliance has emerged between the US, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
因此,实际上,美国、沙特阿拉伯和巴基斯坦之间出现了一个三方准联盟。
And then there’s China
然后是中国。
At the same time, Pakistan also maintains strong military, economic, and political relations with China. Beijing has been keen to de-escalate the situation in the Gulf due to China’s reliance on oil supplies from the region.
同时,巴基斯坦与中国也保持着牢固的军事、经济和政治关系。由于中国对该地区的石油供应依赖,北京一直致力于缓和海湾局势。
This interest was categorically expressed during the visit by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, to China on March 31.
这一兴趣在巴基斯坦外交部长伊沙克·达尔于3月31日访问中国期间得到了明确表达。
Coming soon after Pakistan’s quadrilateral meetings with Saudi, Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers, the negotiations established Pakistan’s credentials as a state that has the backing of significant Muslim majority states. Combined with the support of China, Pakistan was in prime position to explore solutions to the conflict, without Trump losing face.
在巴基斯坦与沙特、埃及和土耳其外交部长举行四方会议后不久,这些谈判确立了巴基斯坦作为一个获得大量穆斯林多数国家支持的国家的地位。结合中国的支持,巴基斯坦处于有利地位,可以在不让特朗普难堪的情况下探索解决冲突的方案。
Samina Yasmeen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Samina Yasmeen不为任何可能从本文中受益的公司或组织工作、提供咨询、拥有股份或接受资金,并且除了其学术任命之外,未披露任何相关隶属关系。

