他揭露了腐败，并在匈牙利各地游走。现在，佩特尔·马吉尔击败了一个强大的国家机器
He exposed corruption and walked across Hungary. Now Pé…
Viktor Orbán had consolidated his power and taken over state institutions, but Magyar found his Achilles’ heel – growing public anger over corrupt elites.
维克多·奥尔班巩固了权力并接管了国家机构，但马吉尔找到了他的阿喀琉斯之踵——公众对腐败精英日益增长的愤怒。
The landslide victory of Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party in Hungary’s parliamentary election represents much more than a routine change of government. It marks the fall of an “electoral autocracy”, a regime that used elections to shroud and legitimise a system designed to keep the ruling Fidesz party and its leader, Viktor Orbán, in power indefinitely.
佩特尔·马吉尔的蒂萨党在匈牙利议会选举中取得的压倒性胜利，代表的远不止是一次例行的政府更迭。它标志着一个“选举式专制”的垮台，这是一个利用选举来掩盖和合法化旨在无限期让执政的“菲德斯党”（Fidesz）及其领导人维克托·奥尔班继续掌权的制度。
The Orbán regime was founded on three pillars. The first was the concentration of power in Orbán’s hands and the destruction of constitutional restraints and oversight mechanisms.
奥尔班政权建立在三大支柱之上。第一是权力集中在奥尔班手中，并摧毁了宪法制约和监督机制。
Propelled to power in 2010 by a wave of revulsion at corruption scandals and economic crisis, Orbán quickly took over key state institutions like the judiciary, the taxation office, the prosecutor’s office and the election commission. Each were stacked with Fidesz loyalists, who transformed them into instruments of the regime.
奥尔班政权于2010年因对腐败丑闻和经济危机的厌恶浪潮而掌权，他迅速接管了司法、税务局、检察官办公室和选举委员会等关键国家机构。这些机构都被塞满了菲德斯党的忠诚分子，使他们成为了政权的工具。
The second pillar was corruption. The Orbán regime enriched Hungary’s elite by transferring vast resources to a group of loyal oligarchs and Orbán cronies.
第二支柱是腐败。奥尔班政权通过将大量资源转移给一群忠诚的寡头和奥尔班的亲信，从而充实了匈牙利的精英阶层。
It achieved this through skewered tendering processes to award massive state contracts to people like Lőrinc Mészáros, a former gas-fitter who had been one of Orbán’s close childhood friends. In 2010, Mészáros was a minor local businessman, but his wealth doubled every year of Orbán’s rule. By 2018, he was the richest man in Hungary.
它通过舞弊的招标流程，将巨大的国家合同授予了像洛林茨·梅萨罗斯（Lőrinc Mészáros）这样的人，他曾是奥尔班的挚友。2010年，梅萨罗斯只是一个小型地方商人，但在他的统治下，他的财富每年都在翻倍。到2018年，他成为了匈牙利最富有的人。
The third pillar was the media, slowly subjugated by a pincer movement of government institutions and loyal oligarchs.
第三支柱是媒体，它逐渐被政府机构和忠诚寡头组成的钳形攻势所压制。
Legislation passed in 2011 created a Fidesz-controlled Media Council, which was empowered to impose fines for “unbalanced” reporting. This had a chilling effect on journalists.
2011年通过的法律创建了一个由菲德斯党控制的媒体委员会，该委员会被授权对“不平衡”的报道处以罚款。这对记者产生了寒蝉效应。
At the same time, the regime distributed lavish subsidies and advertising contracts to pro-regime outlets. And loyal oligarchs acquired the last bastions of the Hungarian mainstream media. In 2016, one of Hungary’s most influential newspapers, Népszabadság, was purchased by a company linked to Mészáros and promptly shut down.
与此同时，政权向亲政媒体分发了大量的补贴和广告合同。忠诚的寡头则攫取了匈牙利主流媒体的最后据点。2016年，匈牙利最具影响力的报纸之一《自由报》（Népszabadság）被一家与梅萨罗罗斯有关联的公司收购，并迅速停刊。
The culmination of this war of attrition was the creation of a massive media conglomerate, the Central European Press and Media Foundation. It came to control hundreds of media holdings donated by pro-regime businesses. The result was the consolidation of the regime’s control over an estimated 80% of Hungary’s media market.
这场消耗战的顶峰是中央欧洲新闻和媒体基金会（Central European Press and Media Foundation）的成立。它接管了由亲政企业捐赠的数百家媒体资产。结果是，政权控制了估计占匈牙利媒体市场80%的份额。
Orbán justified this concentration of power by posing as a defender of Hungary’s sovereignty and traditional values against threats to the nation.
奥尔班通过将自己塑造成捍卫匈牙利主权和传统价值观的卫士，来为这种权力集中辩护，以对抗国家面临的威胁。
His rule was punctuated by a series of scare campaigns constructed around external threats – the philanthropist George Soros, the European Union, refugees and Ukraine. He used these threats to justify increasingly draconian controls over civil society and the domestic opposition.
他的统治周期性地伴随着一系列围绕外部威胁构建的恐慌运动——包括慈善家乔治·索罗斯、欧盟、难民和乌克兰。他利用这些威胁来为对公民社会和国内反对派日益严厉的控制进行辩护。
Who is Péter Magyar?
佩特尔·马吉尔是谁？
What enabled opposition leader Péter Magyar to topple this system in Sunday’s election was the fact he was an insider.
使得反对派领袖佩特尔·马吉尔能在周日的选举中推翻这个体制，在于他本身是一个“内部人士”。
As a moderate conservative and former Fidesz functionary, Magyar was not easy to stigmatise using the regime’s usual stereotypes. At the same time, he had deep knowledge of the inner workings of the system.
作为一名温和的保守派和前“执政党”（Fidesz）职员，马吉尔很难被政权惯用的刻板印象所污名化。同时，他对这个体制的内部运作机制有着深刻的了解。
In early 2024, he broke with Fidesz during a massive scandal over a presidential pardon for a man convicted of covering up paedophilia in a children’s home. And he became an anti-corruption crusader.
2024年初，在一场关于总统赦免一名被判在儿童之家掩盖恋童癖行为的男子的巨大丑闻中，他与“执政党”决裂。他成为了一个反腐斗士。
On his Facebook page, Magyar reflected he had always believed in Fidesz’s vision of a “national, sovereign, civic Hungary”, but had slowly come to realise:
在他的脸书页面上，马吉尔反思说，他一直相信“执政党”关于“民族、主权、公民匈牙利”的愿景，但渐渐地意识到：
[…]this is really just a political product, a sugar coating that serves only two purposes: to conceal the operation of the power factory and to amass immense wealth.
[…]这真只是一个政治产品，一层糖衣，它只服务于两个目的：掩盖权力机器的运作，以及积累巨大的财富。
A few weeks later, he magnified the impact of this bombshell by releasing audio recordings of a conversation in which his ex-wife, former Justice Minister Judit Varga, discussed how Orbán’s Cabinet chief had organised the removal of files in a corruption case.
几周后，他通过发布一段音频录音，放大了这个重磅炸弹的影响。录音中，他的前妻、前司法部长朱迪特·瓦尔加讨论了奥尔班内阁首脑是如何组织销毁一起腐败案件文件的。
Before the Orbán regime had time to react, Magyar had emerged as the leader of an obscure centre-right party, Tisza, in the elections to the European parliament. In a blow to Fidesz, it came from nowhere to win 30% of the vote. The result transformed Magyar into the undisputed leader of Hungary’s democratic movement.
在奥尔班政权来不及反应之前，马吉尔已成为欧洲议会选举中一个不知名的中右翼政党“蒂萨”（Tisza）的领导人。这对“执政党”是一个沉重打击，它凭空出现，获得了30%的选票。这一结果将马吉尔转变为匈牙利民主运动无可争议的领袖。
Taking down an autocrat
打倒一位独裁者
Magyar undermined the Orbán regime in two ways.
马贾尔通过两种方式削弱了奥尔班政权。
The first was to neutralise Orbán’s populist, anti-elitist politics by focusing on corruption. Magyar repeatedly drew attention to the luxurious estate at Hatvanpuszta, a 19th century country estate and model farm that was massively redeveloped after 2018.
第一是关注腐败，从而削弱了奥尔班的民粹主义和反精英主义政治。马贾尔多次提到了哈特万普斯塔（Hatvanpuszta）的豪华庄园，这是一处19世纪的乡村庄园和示范农场，在2018年后进行了大规模重建。
Although formally owned by Orbán’s father, Győző, it was widely believed to be a personal retreat of Viktor Orbán himself. Magyar called Hatvanpuszta “the heart of the system”, and likened it to one of Putin’s palaces.
尽管该庄园名义上属于奥尔班的父亲乔乔（Győző），但人们普遍认为它是维克多·奥尔班本人的私人度假地。马贾尔称哈特万普斯塔为“体制的核心”，并将其比作普京的宫殿之一。
The second was to reach out to Orbán’s rural heartland. In 2025, Magyar walked hundreds of kilometres in a series of political marches across the Hungarian countryside, visiting the small towns and villages that traditionally voted for Fidesz.
第二是深入奥尔班的乡村腹地。2025年，马贾尔在匈牙利乡村进行了一系列政治徒步游行，走了数百公里，拜访了传统上投票支持“执政党”（Fidesz）的小城镇和村庄。
His party, Tisza, soon overtook Fidesz in the pre-election polls, but a peaceful transition of power was far from inevitable.
他的政党“蒂萨”（Tisza）很快在选举前民调中超过了“执政党”，但权力和平过渡远非必然。
During its final years, the Orbán regime had became increasingly repressive. It used the security services to conduct a covert operation to penetrate the Tisza party’s computer servers. It also laid espionage charges against the country’s famous investigative journalist, Szabolcs Panyi, for exposing how Orbán’s foreign minister was collaborating with the Kremlin.
在其最后几年，奥尔班政权变得越来越专制。它利用安全部门进行秘密行动，渗透“蒂萨”党的计算机服务器。它还对该国著名的调查记者萨博尔奇·帕尼（Szabolcs Panyi）提出间谍罪指控，指控他揭露了奥尔班的外交部长如何与克里姆林宫勾结。
And a disinformation campaign, apparently of Russian origin, prepared the ground for a government crackdown by raising the spectre of post-election violence and attempts to assassinate Orbán.
此外，一场显然源于俄罗斯的虚假信息运动，通过渲染选举后暴力和刺杀奥尔班的阴影，为政府的镇压铺平了道路。
But what broke the regime was the tidal wave of popular support for Magyar’s campaign. In the lead-up to the election, fractures began to emerge within the regime. A combination of whistleblower testimony and leaks from the security forces shone a spotlight on its abuses of power.
但真正击垮政权的是民众对马贾尔竞选活动的巨大支持浪潮。在选举临近之际，政权内部开始出现裂痕。举报人的证词和安全部队的泄密信息，使其滥用权力的行为暴露无遗。
When the scale of Magyar’s victory became clear on election night, there was no room to dispute the verdict of the people. Orbán was finished.
当选举之夜马贾尔胜利的规模变得清晰时，人们无法质疑人民的裁决。奥尔班完了。
Robert Horvath has received funding from the Australian Research Council.
罗伯特·霍尔瓦特（Robert Horvath）获得了澳大利亚研究理事会的资助。
