The US, Israel and Iran war will shift alliances and create insecurity for years to come.
美、以、伊战争将改变联盟格局，并在未来几年带来不确定性。
On February 28, the US and Israel launched a war against Iran following weeks of US military build-up in the region and threats from US President Donald Trump.
2月28日，在美国军事集结和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的威胁之后，美国和以色列对伊朗发动了战争。
In the ensuing weeks, Iran has retaliated by striking US assets in the Persian Gulf states and targets across Israel. Israel has launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon in response to attacks from Hezbollah.
在随后的几周里，伊朗通过袭击波斯湾国家的美利资产和以色列各地的目标进行了报复。以色列则响应真主党（Hezbollah）的袭击，向黎巴嫩南部发动了地面入侵。
Oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have come to a virtual standstill, threatening a global energy crisis. And thousands have been killed, most in Iran and Lebanon.
通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油和天然气运输几乎停滞，威胁着全球能源危机。数千人丧生，大部分死于伊朗和黎巴嫩。
The entire Middle East has been affected by this war – and the region will no doubt be very different once it’s resolved.
整个中东都受到了这场战争的影响——一旦解决，该地区无疑将发生巨大的变化。
We asked five experts in international politics and Middle East studies to explain the most important changes they see happening following the war.
我们请了五位国际政治和中东研究领域的专家，来解释他们在战争后看到的最重要的变化。
The academic experts who shared their analysis of this topic are:
分享了他们对该主题分析的学术专家包括：
Scott Lucas Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin. He joined University College Dublin in 2022 as Professor of International Politics, having been on the staff of the University of Birmingham since 1989. He began his career as a specialist in US and British foreign policy, but his research interests now also cover current international affairs – especially North Africa, the Middle East, and Iran – New Media, and Intelligence Services.
Scott Lucas，都柏林大学学院国际政治学教授，克林顿学院。他于2022年加入都柏林大学学院，担任国际政治学教授，此前他自1989年起就任职于伯明翰大学。他最初的职业生涯是美国和英国外交政策专家，但目前他的研究兴趣还涵盖了当前的国际事务——特别是北非、中东和伊朗——新媒体和情报服务。
Andrew Thomas Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University. He teaches units on International Relations, Middle East conflict and global governance. His book “Iran and the West: a non-Western approach to foreign policy”(2024)explores how non-Western perspectives on the Middle East and beyond can improve our understanding of intractible conflict.
Andrew Thomas，迪金大学中东研究讲师。他教授国际关系、中东冲突和全球治理等课程。他的著作《伊朗与西方：非西方外交政策视角》（2024年）探讨了非西方视角如何改善我们对中东及其他地区难以解决的冲突的理解。
Chris Ogden Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau. He specialises in the interplay between identity, culture, security and domestic politics in India, China, South Asia, East Asia and the Indo-Pacific. His latest book is “The Authoritarian Century: China’s Rise and the Demise of the Liberal International Order”(Bristol University Press, 2022).
Chris Ogden，奥克兰大学（Waipapa Taumata Rau）全球研究副教授。他专注于印度、中国、南亚、东亚和印太地区身份认同、文化、安全和国内政治之间的相互作用。他的最新著作是《威权世纪：中国的崛起与自由国际秩序的衰落》（布里斯托大学出版社，2022年）。
Jessica Genauer Academic Director, Public Policy Institute, UNSW Sydney. She is an expert in international conflict and provide regular analysis for national and international outlets on war and conflict. Her research interests include conflict, threat perceptions, and post-conflict institution-building with a focus on the Middle East as well as Russia / Ukraine and the US.
Jessica Genauer，新南威尔士大学悉尼公共政策研究所学术总监。她是国际冲突专家，经常为国内外媒体提供关于战争和冲突的分析。她的研究兴趣包括冲突、威胁认知和冲突后制度建设，重点关注中东，以及俄罗斯/乌克兰和美国。
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen Fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, Rice University. His research examines the changing position of Persian Gulf states in the global order, as well as the emergence of longer-term, nonmilitary challenges to regional security. Previously, he worked as senior Gulf analyst at the Gulf Center for Strategic Studies and as co-director of the Kuwait Program on Development, Governance and Globalization in the Gulf States at the London School of Economics.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen，莱斯大学贝克研究所中东学者。他的研究考察了波斯湾国家在全球秩序中不断变化的位置，以及长期、非军事性对地区安全的挑战的出现。此前，他曾担任海湾战略研究中心的高级海湾分析师，并担任伦敦经济学院海湾国家发展、治理和全球化项目联合主任。
Chris Ogden is a senior research fellow with the Foreign Policy Centre, London.
Chris Ogden是伦敦外交政策中心的高级研究员。
Andrew Thomas, Jessica Genauer, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, and Scott Lucas do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Andrew Thomas、Jessica Genauer、Kristian Coates Ulrichsen和Scott Lucas均不为任何受益于本文的公司或组织工作、提供咨询、拥有股份或接受资金，并且除了其学术任命外，未披露任何相关隶属关系。
