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How will the Iran war change the Middle East? We asked 5 experts

Bagaimana perang Iran akan mengubah Timur Tengah? Kami bertanya kepada 5 pakar

How will the Iran war change the Middle East? We asked 5 experts

Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin Andrew Thomas, Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Jessica Genauer, Academic Director, Public Policy Institute, UNSW Sydney Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, Rice University
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The US, Israel and Iran war will shift alliances and create insecurity for years to come.

Perang AS, Israel, dan Iran akan menggeser aliansi dan menciptakan ketidakamanan selama bertahun-tahun yang akan datang.

On February 28, the US and Israel launched a war against Iran following weeks of US military build-up in the region and threats from US President Donald Trump.

Pada 28 Februari, AS dan Israel melancarkan perang terhadap Iran menyusul minggu-minggu peningkatan militer AS di kawasan tersebut dan ancaman dari Presiden AS Donald Trump.

In the ensuing weeks, Iran has retaliated by striking US assets in the Persian Gulf states and targets across Israel. Israel has launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon in response to attacks from Hezbollah.

Dalam minggu-minggu berikutnya, Iran membalas dengan menyerang aset AS di negara-negara Teluk Persia dan target di seluruh Israel. Israel telah melancarkan invasi darat ke Lebanon selatan sebagai respons terhadap serangan dari Hezbollah.

Oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have come to a virtual standstill, threatening a global energy crisis. And thousands have been killed, most in Iran and Lebanon.

Pengiriman minyak dan gas melalui Selat Hormuz hampir terhenti, mengancam krisis energi global. Dan ribuan orang telah tewas, sebagian besar di Iran dan Lebanon.

The entire Middle East has been affected by this war – and the region will no doubt be very different once it’s resolved.

Seluruh Timur Tengah telah terdampak oleh perang ini – dan kawasan ini tidak diragukan akan sangat berbeda setelah terselesaikan.

We asked five experts in international politics and Middle East studies to explain the most important changes they see happening following the war.

Kami meminta lima pakar dalam politik internasional dan studi Timur Tengah untuk menjelaskan perubahan terpenting yang mereka lihat terjadi setelah perang.

The academic experts who shared their analysis of this topic are:

Para pakar akademis yang membagikan analisis mereka tentang topik ini adalah:

Scott Lucas Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin. He joined University College Dublin in 2022 as Professor of International Politics, having been on the staff of the University of Birmingham since 1989. He began his career as a specialist in US and British foreign policy, but his research interests now also cover current international affairs – especially North Africa, the Middle East, and Iran – New Media, and Intelligence Services.

Scott Lucas Profesor Politik Internasional, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin. Ia bergabung dengan University College Dublin pada tahun 2022 sebagai Profesor Politik Internasional, setelah menjadi staf University of Birmingham sejak tahun 1989. Ia memulai kariernya sebagai spesialis kebijakan luar negeri AS dan Inggris, tetapi minat penelitiannya kini juga mencakup urusan internasional terkini – terutama Afrika Utara, Timur Tengah, dan Iran – Media Baru, dan Layanan Intelijen.

Andrew Thomas Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University. He teaches units on International Relations, Middle East conflict and global governance. His book “Iran and the West: a non-Western approach to foreign policy” (2024) explores how non-Western perspectives on the Middle East and beyond can improve our understanding of intractible conflict.

Andrew Thomas Dosen Studi Timur Tengah, Deakin University. Ia mengajar unit-unit tentang Hubungan Internasional, konflik Timur Tengah, dan tata kelola global. Buku karyanya “Iran and the West: a non-Western approach to foreign policy” (2024) mengeksplorasi bagaimana perspektif non-Barat tentang Timur Tengah dan sekitarnya dapat meningkatkan pemahaman kita tentang konflik yang sulit diatasi.

Chris Ogden Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau. He specialises in the interplay between identity, culture, security and domestic politics in India, China, South Asia, East Asia and the Indo-Pacific. His latest book is “The Authoritarian Century: China’s Rise and the Demise of the Liberal International Order” (Bristol University Press, 2022).

Chris Ogden Profesor Madya Studi Global, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau. Ia berspesialisasi dalam interaksi antara identitas, budaya, keamanan, dan politik domestik di India, Tiongkok, Asia Selatan, Asia Timur, dan Indo-Pasifik. Buku terbarunya adalah “The Authoritarian Century: China’s Rise and the Demise of the Liberal International Order” (Bristol University Press, 2022).

Jessica Genauer Academic Director, Public Policy Institute, UNSW Sydney. She is an expert in international conflict and provide regular analysis for national and international outlets on war and conflict. Her research interests include conflict, threat perceptions, and post-conflict institution-building with a focus on the Middle East as well as Russia / Ukraine and the US.

Jessica Genauer Direktur Akademik, Public Policy Institute, UNSW Sydney. Dia adalah seorang ahli dalam konflik internasional dan memberikan analisis rutin untuk media nasional dan internasional tentang perang dan konflik. Minat penelitiannya meliputi konflik, persepsi ancaman, dan pembangunan institusi pasca-konflik dengan fokus pada Timur Tengah serta Rusia/Ukraina dan AS.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen Fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, Rice University. His research examines the changing position of Persian Gulf states in the global order, as well as the emergence of longer-term, nonmilitary challenges to regional security. Previously, he worked as senior Gulf analyst at the Gulf Center for Strategic Studies and as co-director of the Kuwait Program on Development, Governance and Globalization in the Gulf States at the London School of Economics.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen Fellow untuk Timur Tengah di Baker Institute, Rice University. Penelitiannya mengkaji perubahan posisi negara-negara Teluk Persia dalam tatanan global, serta munculnya tantangan jangka panjang non-militer terhadap keamanan regional. Sebelumnya, ia bekerja sebagai analis senior Teluk di Gulf Center for Strategic Studies dan sebagai ko-direktur Program Kuwait tentang Pembangunan, Tata Kelola, dan Globalisasi di Negara-negara Teluk di London School of Economics.

Chris Ogden is a senior research fellow with the Foreign Policy Centre, London.

Chris Ogden adalah seorang peneliti senior di Foreign Policy Centre, London.

Andrew Thomas, Jessica Genauer, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, and Scott Lucas do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Andrew Thomas, Jessica Genauer, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, dan Scott Lucas tidak bekerja untuk, berkonsultasi dengan, memiliki saham di, atau menerima pendanaan dari perusahaan atau organisasi apa pun yang akan diuntungkan dari artikel ini, dan tidak mengungkapkan afiliasi relevan di luar jabatan akademis mereka.

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