Streeting accused Starmer of creating a ‘vacuum’ in the Labour party where vision is needed.
斯特里廷指责斯塔默在工党内部制造了一个需要愿景的“真空”。
It has become a given in Westminster circles that Keir Starmer’s tenure as prime minister could be nearing its end. This is because, fairly or unfairly, the UK public have made up their minds – and they do not like him.
在威斯敏斯特圈子里，人们普遍认为基尔·斯塔默担任首相的任期可能接近尾声。这是因为，无论是否公平，英国民众已经下定决心——而他们并不喜欢他。
Labour MPs know this all too well, having seen the level of animosity on the doorstep during recent election campaigns in England, Wales and Scotland. They just didn’t immediately know what to do about it. But then Wes Streeting quit as health secretary, criticising Starmer in his resignation letter for what he said was a “vacuum” where political vision was required.
工党议员深知这一点，他们在英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰最近的竞选活动中目睹了民众的敌对情绪。他们只是没有立即知道该如何应对。但随后，韦斯·斯特里特辞去了卫生大臣一职，并在辞职信中批评斯塔默，称其存在一个需要政治远见的“真空”。
Recent UK history is full of precedents when prime ministers found their position untenable. For the Conservatives, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were all removed eventually. But such a course of action comes with costs: to party unity, to market sentiment, and in terms of how the voters view political shenanigans.
近期的英国历史充满了首相发现其职位难以为继的先例。对于保守党来说，特蕾莎·梅、鲍里斯·约翰逊和莉兹·特拉斯最终都被撤职了。但这种做法是有代价的：代价包括党派团结、市场情绪，以及选民对政治闹剧的看法。
This is why, until now, the more thoughtful voices in the Labour party either kept their counsel or argued for caution. But a significant number of Labour MPs believe that a change at the top is now inevitable.
这就是为什么，直到现在，工党中那些更深思熟虑的声音要么保持沉默，要么主张谨慎。但相当数量的工党议员认为，高层变动现在是不可避免的。
Streeting, Rayner or Burnham
斯特里廷、雷纳或伯纳姆
From the right of the party, Streeting, the combative former health secretary, is the key figure to challenge Starmer. But he still requires the backing of at least 81 fellow Labour MPs.
从党派右翼的斯特里廷，这位好斗的前卫生部长，是挑战斯塔默的关键人物。但他仍需要至少81名工党议员的支持。
A Streeting bid for the leadership would be supported by much of the media, but what many regard as his lukewarm re-tread of old Blairite orthodoxies would limit his appeal with the party membership. And members play a significant role in leadership contests.
斯特里廷竞选领导权可能会得到媒体的广泛支持，但许多人认为他只是温和地重蹈了老布莱尔主义的覆辙，这会限制他在党内会员中的吸引力。而会员在领导人选举中扮演着重要的角色。
By contrast, a likely candidate of the so-called “soft left”, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, has now cleared up her tax affairs and is more popular with the party rank-and-file. But she would alienate much of the London commentariat.
相比之下，所谓的“温和左翼”的有力候选人、前副首相安吉拉·雷纳，现在已经解决了她的税务问题，在党内基层成员中更受欢迎。但她会疏远伦敦大部分评论界人士。
What neither Streeting nor Rayner possess is genuine cut-through with the wider British public. And this is where the current mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, comes in. Burnham does not have a parliamentary seat and, although he intends to contest the Makerfield constituency made vacant by Josh Simons’ decision to step aside, it is not guaranteed that he will win. Given Labour’s current unpopularity, the party cannot assume it would win a by-election anywhere.
斯特里廷和雷纳都没有在更广泛的英国公众中获得真正的支持度。而这正是曼彻斯特大都会现任市长安迪·伯纳姆发挥作用的地方。伯纳姆没有议会席位，尽管他打算竞选由乔什·西蒙斯决定退出而空出的梅克菲尔德选区，但这并不能保证他能获胜。鉴于工党目前的不受欢迎，该党不能假设它能在任何地方赢得一次补选。
And even if Burnham did scale that hurdle, there is a real danger that his replacement as the Labour candidate for the mayoralty would lose to Reform UK. This would allow party opponents to portray Burnham’s move as an indulgence at the expense of the party.
即使伯纳姆能跨过这一障碍，也有很大的危险，他作为市长候选人的替代人选可能会输给改革党（Reform UK）。这将允许党内反对派将伯纳姆的举动描绘成一种损害党的利益的个人私心。
Nevertheless, if the political stars were to align and Burnham navigates his passage back to Westminster in time for a leadership challenge, he would be a formidable opponent. Burnham not only outpolls his main rivals among Labour members, he also enjoys rare net approval ratings with the public (+6, compared with-12 for Rayner and-20 for Streeting) . Labour MPs will be paying particular attention to those numbers.
尽管如此，如果政治明星们能够汇聚，并且伯纳姆能在领导人挑战的期限内回到威斯敏斯特，他将是一个强大的对手。伯纳姆不仅在工党会员中超过了主要竞争对手，而且他在公众中享有罕见的净支持率（+6，而雷纳为-12，斯特里廷为-20）。工党议员们会特别关注这些数字。
There is strong reason to believe that Rayner will have a crucial role in how this plays out. This could either be by standing for leader herself or through working with Burnham. Either way, she is in an incredibly influential position.
有充分的理由相信，雷纳将在这一局势的发展中发挥关键作用。这可能是她自己竞选领导人，也可能是通过与伯纳姆合作。无论哪种情况，她都处于一个极具影响力的位置。
And what would Labour and the country look like under new leadership? The revolving door at the top partly reflects the extent of the challenges (economic, political, cultural) that the country faces. Voters have not seen rises in their real living standards for two decades, are truly angry and deeply polarised.
工党和国家在新的领导层下会是什么样子？权力顶层不断更迭的部分反映了国家面临的挑战（经济、政治、文化）的程度。选民二十年来没有看到其实际生活水平的提高，他们非常愤怒且极度两极分化。
The UK is divided on how to go forward, and so is the Labour Party. That is why potential challengers to Starmer really should be careful what they wish for. Much of the political instability of recent years is down to the collective obsession with politics as a short-term and personality-based kind of show business.
英国在如何前进的问题上是分裂的，工党也是如此。这就是为什么潜在的挑战者们真的应该小心他们所期望的。近年来大部分的政治不稳定，归因于对政治作为一种短期、基于个人魅力的“娱乐表演”的集体痴迷。
But this ignores the more worrying long-term developments in financial markets that indicate that there is no faith in the UK’s ability to tackle its structural problems any time soon. The eventual winner of Labour’s leadership drama may inherit the throne just as money markets’ patience with the UK runs out.
但这忽略了金融市场更令人担忧的长期发展，这些发展表明，短期内没有人相信英国有能力解决其结构性问题。工党领导权斗争的最终赢家，可能会在金钱市场对英国的耐心耗尽时，继承王位。
Charles Lees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Charles Lees不为任何受益于本文的公司或组织工作、咨询、拥有股份或接受资金，并且除了其学术任命外，未披露任何相关关系。
