随着伊朗和美国签署和平协议，这对本雅明·内塔尼亚胡意味着什么？
With Iran and the US signing a peace deal, where does t…
The Israeli prime minister faces an invidious choice in an election year: kowtow to a powerful ally, or risk displeasure at home by ending the war with Hezbollah.
在选举年，以色列总理面临一个进退两难的选择：是向强大的盟友屈服，还是结束与真主党的战争从而冒着在国内引起不满的风险。
The peace deal between the US and Iran calls not just for the cessation of hostilities between the two countries, but also between Israel and Hezbollah. It also calls for Lebanese territorial integrity and sovereignty to be respected.
美国和伊朗之间的和平协议不仅要求两国停止敌对行动，还要求以色列和真主党之间也停火。它还呼吁尊重黎巴嫩的领土完整和主权。
This places Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a political conundrum, because ceasing hostilities against Hezbollah runs contrary to his government’s determination to finally crush its nemesis.
这使以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡陷入了政治困境，因为停止对真主党的敌对行动与其政府决心彻底击败其宿敌相悖。
Netanyahu now faces difficult decisions. Does he kowtow to the US, Israel’s longstanding ally and security guarantor, in an election year? Or does he defy the US and continue Israel’s military onslaught against Hezbollah?
内塔尼亚胡现在面临艰难的决定。是在选举年向美国——以色列长期以来的盟友和安全保障方——低头？还是违抗美国，继续以色列对真主党的军事攻势？
An answer to these questions seemed to come in part on June 19, when Israel and Hezbollah agreed on yet another ceasefire. However, the next day Israel bombed Lebanon, and Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz.
这些问题的答案似乎部分出现在6月19日，当时以色列和真主党就又一次停火达成协议。然而，第二天以色列轰炸了黎巴嫩，而伊朗再次封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。
Elections at home
家里的选举
Since the beginning of Israel’s current war against Hezbollah in March 2026, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has advanced into southern and eastern Lebanon. In the process, the IDF has pushed Hezbollah out of its traditional strongholds and bombed targets in southern Beirut.
自2026年3月以色列对真主党发动当前战争以来，以色列国防军（IDF）已推进到黎巴嫩南部和东部。在此过程中，以色列国防军将真主党赶出了其传统的根据地，并在贝鲁特南部轰炸了目标区域。
To date, the war has killed more than 4,000 Lebanese people and forced another 1 million to flee their homes. On June 1, IDF units captured the strategically important Beaufort Castle, allowing the IDF to control most of southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah strongholds in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.
迄今为止，这场战争已经造成超过4000名黎巴嫩人死亡，并迫使另外100万人逃离家园。6月1日，以色列国防军占领了战略要地的博福城堡（Beaufort Castle），使其控制了大部分黎巴嫩南部地区，包括东部贝卡谷的真主党根据地。
Within the areas it now occupies, the IDF has issued “don’t come back” orders, forcibly displacing thousands of Lebanese residents from their homes. On June 15, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated, “Israeli forces will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza without any time limit” and the zones “would be cleared of local residents and all terror infrastructure including the houses”.
在目前占据的区域内，以色列国防军发布了“不许返回”的命令，强行将数千名黎巴嫩居民从家中驱离。以色列国防部长以色列·卡茨（Israel Katz）于6月15日表示：“以色列军队将在黎巴嫩、叙利亚和加沙的安全区无限期驻留”，并称这些区域“将被当地居民和所有恐怖基础设施，包括房屋清空”。
The war is immensely popular in Israel. An April 2026 poll revealed 80% of respondents favoured continuing the war against Hezbollah, even if that created friction with the US. The war’s popularity is crucial for Netanyahu, with national elections due to be held by October. He is desperate to win another term as prime minister to forestall his long-running corruption trial and stifle debates over his culpability for the intelligence failures that lead to Hamas’s devastating October 7 attacks.
这场战争在以色列非常受欢迎。2026年4月的一项民意调查显示，80%的受访者支持继续对真主党发动战争，即使这会与美国产生摩擦。这场战争的受欢迎程度对内塔尼亚胡至关重要，因为全国大选预计将在10月举行。他迫切希望赢得下一任总理职位，以避免其旷日持久的腐败审判，并平息关于其因情报失误导致哈马斯在10月7日发动毁灭性袭击所应承担责任的辩论。
In their aftermath, Netanyahu vowed to dramatically change the political landscape of the Middle East. He did this with wars on Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah.
在此之后，内塔尼亚胡誓言要彻底改变中东的政治格局。他通过对哈马斯、伊朗和真主党的战争做到了这一点。
But while these wars have significantly degraded the ability of his nemeses to threaten Israel, they have not been defeated as promised. This means while Netanyahu has indeed changed the political landscape of the Middle East, his wars have arguably made Israel less, rather than more, secure.
但是，虽然这些战争显著削弱了其宿敌威胁以色列的能力，但它们并没有像承诺的那样被击败。这意味着尽管内塔尼亚胡确实改变了中东的政治格局，但他的战争可以说让以色列的安全程度降低了，而不是提高了。
Criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of these wars has been growing, with Opposition politician Yair Golan declaring:
对内塔尼亚胡处理这些战争方式的批评日益增多，反对党政客亚伊尔·戈兰（Yair Golan）宣称：
Netanyahu lied. He promised a historic victory and security for generations, and in practice, we got one of the most severe strategic failures Israel has ever known.
内塔尼亚胡撒谎了。他承诺了一个历史性的胜利和世代的安全保障，但实际上，我们得到的是以色列有史以来最严重的战略失败之一。
Netanyahu needs continuing military successes in Lebanon to sustain his narrative that he is making Israel safer by defeating its enemies.
内塔尼亚胡需要持续在黎巴嫩取得军事成功，来维持他“通过击败敌人让以色列更安全”的叙事。
Elections abroad
海外选举
However, US President Donald Trump is also facing an unfavourable domestic political environment in the lead up to US mid-term elections. Trump needs an end to an unpopular war to try to create a positive political narrative to stave off potentially losing control of the House and the Senate.
然而，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在即将到来的中期选举前也面临着不利的国内政治环境。特朗普需要结束一场不受欢迎的战争，以试图创造积极的政治叙事，从而避免失去对众议院和参议院的控制权。
He does not want Israeli truculence to make already tense negotiations with Iran harder. For their part, the Iranians have made the cessation of Israel’s war on Hezbollah and its withdrawal from southern Lebanon the central issue in deciding whether to continue negotiating with the US. This is why Iran again closed the vital Strait of Hormuz after Israel bombed Lebanon on the weekend.
他不希望以色列的鲁莽行为使与伊朗本已紧张的谈判更加困难。至于伊朗方面，他们已将要求以色列停止对真主党（Hezbollah）的战争并撤出南黎巴嫩作为决定是否继续与美国进行谈判的核心问题。这就是为什么在以色列周日轰炸了黎巴嫩之后，伊朗再次关闭了重要的霍尔木兹海峡。
So while Israel and the US may be allies, it is not an equal relationship. The geopolitical needs and desires of the US as the great power will always eclipse those of Israel as the middle power.
因此，尽管以色列和美国可能是盟友，但这并非一种平等的关系。作为一个大国，美国的地缘政治需求和愿望将永远超越作为中等国的以色列。
Therefore, as prime ministerial aspirant Yair Lapid, puts it, Netanyahu faces “either a direct and destructive confrontation with our greatest ally or a submissive surrender of Israeli interests”.
因此，正如总理候选人亚伊尔·拉皮德（Yair Lapid）所说，内塔尼亚胡面临着“要么与我们最大的盟友进行直接而破坏性的对抗，要么是屈服于以色列的利益”。
Evidence of how strained the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is came just before the president signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran. Trump castigated Netanyahu for ordering the bombing of Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut. He later suggested Syria would do a better job at fighting Hezbollah stating:
特朗普和内塔尼亚胡关系紧张的证据出现在总统签署了与伊朗谅解备忘录（MoU）之前。特朗普指责内塔尼亚胡下令轰炸贝鲁特南部真主党目标。他后来建议叙利亚在对抗真主党方面会做得更好，并说：
I’m not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah. It just goes on forever and it throws a negative light on the big deal, and that’s the deal with Iran.
“我对以色列处理黎巴嫩和真主党的方式不满意。这永无止境，给大交易带来了负面影响，而这就是与伊朗的交易。”
Despite the president’s frustrations there has been push-back from senior Israeli ministers. National Security Minister Ben Gvir said:
尽管总统感到沮丧，但来自高级以色列部长们也提出了反对意见。国家安全部长本·格维尔（Ben Gvir）说：
The prime minister should have told President Trump: We appreciate you, but Israel is a sovereign and independent state that cannot accept the strengthening, or even the existence, of a terrorist organisation on its borders.
“总理应该告诉特朗普总统：我们感谢您，但以色列是一个主权独立的国家，不能接受在其边境存在恐怖组织的加强，甚至其存在。”
In response US Vice President JD Vance stated bluntly that Israeli critics of the US-Iran deal, “need to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in”.
作为回应，美国副总统JD·万斯（JD Vance）直言不讳地指出，那些批评美伊协议的以色列人，“需要醒来，闻一闻这个国家所处的现实气味”。
In other words, Israel needs the US more than the US needs Israel. Israel relies on US financial and military support for its security, with the two allies recently signing their own MoU that guarantees the US giving Israel US$3.8 billion per year, including US$500 million for missile defence.
换句话说，以色列比美国更需要美国。以色列依靠美国的财政和军事支持来保障其安全，两国盟友最近签署了各自的谅解备忘录，保证美国每年向以色列提供38亿美元，其中包括5亿美元用于导弹防御。
Israel also needs ongoing US diplomatic support to shield it from any future United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. These may come from the concurrent investigations by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC) into allegations of Israel committing genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah.
以色列还需要持续获得美国的外交支持，以使其免受未来联合国安理会（UNSC）制裁的影响。这些制裁可能源于国际法院（ICJ）和国际刑事法院（ICC）对以色列在与哈马斯和真主党战争中犯下种族灭绝、战争罪和反人类罪指控的同步调查。
The situation in Lebanon remains highly volatile, the Israeli people are due to cast their votes before October, and the US is finalising a deal with Iran that will likely run contrary to Israel’s interests. The question now is what Israel is going to do about it.
黎巴嫩局势仍然高度不稳定，以色列人民将在十月前投票，而美国正在与伊朗敲定一项协议，该协议很可能与以色列的利益相悖。现在的问题是，以色列将如何应对。
Martin Kear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
马丁·卡尔（Martin Kear）不为任何受益于本文的公司或组织工作、咨询、持有股份或接受资金，并且除了其学术任命外，没有披露任何相关关系。
