美国-以色列与伊朗的停火暂停了代价高昂的战争，但和平能持续吗？
The US-Israel ceasefire with Iran presses pause on a co…
The two-week agreement, brokered by Pakistan, temporarily halts violence and reopens the Strait of Hormuz – but the path to peace remains complicated.
巴基斯坦斡旋的两周协议暂时停止了暴力并重新开放了霍尔木兹海峡——但通往和平的道路仍然复杂。
President Donald Trump’s acceptance of a Pakistani proposal for a two-week ceasefire in the war with Iran brings a sigh of relief to the international community.
唐纳德·特朗普总统接受巴基斯坦提出的关于与伊朗战争两周停火的提议，让国际社会松了一口气。
Just hours before, many had been alarmed by Trump’s threats to bomb Iran back to “the stone age” and destroy its “civilisation”.
就在几个小时前，许多人曾对特朗普威胁要将伊朗炸回“石器时代”并摧毁其“文明”的行为感到震惊。
The ceasefire provides a breathing space for hammering out a “definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East”, according to Trump.
据特朗普称，此次停火为敲定一份“关于与伊朗长期和平以及中东和平的最终协议”提供了喘息空间。
However, the road to a final settlement will be complex and bumpy, though not insurmountable.
然而，通往最终和解的道路将是复杂而曲折的，尽管并非无法克服。
Underestimating the enemy
低估了敌人
After six weeks of escalating war and rhetoric, starting with joint US-Israel attacks on Iran and the latter’s robust response, the three combatants have not only inflicted serious blows on each other. The region and the world have also suffered from a massive oil, liquefied gas and inflationary crisis as Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
在持续了六周的升级战争和言辞之后，始于美国和以色列对伊朗的联合攻击，以及伊朗强硬的回应，这三方交战方不仅互相造成了严重打击。随着德黑兰关闭霍尔木兹海峡，该地区和世界还遭受了大规模的石油、液化天然气和通胀危机。
This was not something Trump had expected. He initially anticipated the combined US and Israeli military power would rapidly prevail. This would force Tehran, which had suppressed widespread public protests early in the year, to capitulate and thus open the way for favourable regime change.
这不是特朗普所预料的。他最初预期美以联合军事力量会迅速占上风。这将迫使德黑兰——该国在年初镇压了广泛的公众抗议——投降，从而为有利的政权更迭铺平道路。
But the Iranian government proved to be more resilient, entrenched and resourceful than anticipated. The government was also strategic in fighting back by hitting US assets across the Persian Gulf and Israel, as well as closing the strait.
但伊朗政府被证明比预期更具韧性、根深蒂固且足智多谋。该政府还通过攻击波斯湾的美国资产和以色列，以及关闭海峡，采取了战略性的反击。
Meanwhile, Trump could not solicit active support from US allies for his joint war endeavours with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is under indictment by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Gaza.
同时，特朗普无法从美国盟友那里为他与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的联合战争努力争取到积极支持。内塔尼亚胡因加沙的战争罪而受到国际刑事法院的起诉。
The allies had not been consulted. They didn’t consider it to be in their individual national interests to participate in a war contrary to international law and the United Nations Charter.
盟友们没有被咨询。他们认为参与一场违反国际法和《联合国宪章》的战争，不符合他们各自的国家利益。
Costing billions
耗资数十亿美元
Further, the United States’ global adversaries, Russia and China – both having strategic cooperation agreements with Iran – vehemently opposed the war. They joined scores of other countries around the world in calling for de-escalation and measures to avoid more economic repercussions.
此外，美国的全球对手俄罗斯和中国——两国都与伊朗有战略合作协议——强烈反对这场战争。他们与其他世界各国一起，呼吁降级和采取措施避免更多经济后果。
The conflict widened. Israel unleashed a campaign to occupy southern Lebanon in response to attacks from Iran-aligned Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah.
冲突扩大了。以色列对伊朗支持的黎巴嫩准军事组织真主党（Hezbollah）的袭击，发动了占领黎巴嫩南部战役。
The costs of the war then soared for all sides. For the US alone, the price tag amounted to at least US$1billion (A$1.4 billion) a day. This added substantially to the federal debt of close to $40 trillion (A$56.6 trillion).
随后，战争成本对所有方面都飙升。仅美国就每天花费至少10亿美元（澳元14亿）。这大幅增加了接近40万亿美元（澳元56.6万亿）的联邦债务。
The situation evolved into a race between missiles and interceptors; it would just be a matter of who ran out first.
局势演变成了一场导弹与拦截器之间的竞赛；这只取决于谁先耗尽。
It was recently reported that Israel was getting low in interceptors and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) faced a shortage of manpower.
最近有报道称，以色列的拦截器储备不足，以色列国防军（IDF）面临人力短缺。
Unpopular in the US
在美国不受欢迎
On the other hand, despite the US and Israeli decapitation of its leadership, air supremacy and bombardment of thousands of military and non-military targets, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintained a sustained retaliatory capability. It managed to fire dozens of advanced missiles and drones on a daily basis against targets in the Gulf and Israel.
另一方面，尽管美国和以色列对其领导层进行了斩首行动，并对数千个军事和非军事目标实施了空优和轰炸，但伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）仍保持了持续的反击能力。它每天都能向海湾和以色列的目标发射数十枚先进导弹和无人机。
More importantly, the war proved increasingly unpopular in the United States. As the public felt the effects of it on the rising cost of living and at the petrol stations, some 61% of citizens opposed the war. Trump’s ratings plummeted in the opinion polls.
更重要的是，这场战争在美国越来越不受欢迎。随着公众感受到生活成本和加油站价格上涨的影响，约有61%的公民反对这场战争。特朗普在民意调查中的支持率暴跌。
In view of these variables, Trump could not possibly stand by his promise of escalating Operation Epic Fury to the level of erasing such a sizeable country as Iran. Iranian cultural and patriotic features, as well as the devotion of the country’s many citizens to Shia Islam, mitigated against outside aggression, as in previous occasions in its history.
鉴于这些变量，特朗普不可能兑现将“史诗怒火行动”（Operation Epic Fury）升级到消灭伊朗这样一个大国的承诺。伊朗的文化和爱国特征，以及该国许多公民对什叶派伊斯兰教的奉献精神，像历史上以往的场合一样，抵御了外部的侵略。
Long road ahead
漫长的路 ahead
This is not to claim that negotiating and concluding a comprehensive agreement for an enduring peace between the US and Iran will be easy.
这并非说美伊之间达成持久和平的全面协议谈判和签署会是容易的。
But a crucial section of Trump’s acceptance of the ceasefire, which gives us an insight into his thinking, is as follows:
但特朗普接受停火协议的一个关键部分，为我们提供了洞察其思维，如下：
we received a 10 point proposal from Iran (in response to the US 15-point proposal), and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.
我们收到了伊朗提出的10点提案（作为对美国15点提案的回应），并相信这是一个可行的谈判基础。美国和伊朗几乎就过去各种争论点达成了协议，但需要两周时间才能使协议最终确定和落实。
The ten points include a secession of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, though Israel has since claimed Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire.
这十点包括在所有战线上的停止敌对行动，包括黎巴嫩，尽管以色列此后声称黎巴嫩不包括在停火协议内。
Some of the other key elements are:
其他一些关键要素是：
-
the US must fundamentally commit to guaranteeing non-aggressionthe continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuzremoval of primary and secondary sanctions on Iranand acceptance of Iran’s right that it can enrich uranium for its nuclear program (for peaceful purposes).
-
美国必须从根本上承诺保证不侵略伊朗继续控制霍尔木兹海峡取消对伊朗的主要和次要制裁并接受伊朗有权为其核计划（用于和平目的）浓缩铀。
It is now incumbent on Trump to pull into line Netanyahu, who has toiled for a long time not only to destroy the Iranian government, but also to reduce the Iranian state as a regional actor.
现在轮到特朗普将内塔尼亚胡拉到同一阵线上，内塔尼亚胡长期以来不仅致力于摧毁伊朗政府，还致力于将伊朗国家降级为一个区域行为体。
If this happens and all the parties negotiate in good faith, there is room for optimism. We could potentially see the dawn of a post-war regional order based more on a localised collective security arrangement than on a regional supremacy of one actor over another.
如果这种情况发生，并且所有各方本着诚意进行谈判，那么就有乐观的空间。我们有可能看到一个战后区域秩序的曙光，这个秩序更多地建立在局部集体安全安排之上，而不是一个行为体凌驾于其他行为体之上的区域霸权。
Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Amin Saikal不为任何受益于本文的公司或组织工作、咨询、拥有股份或接受资金，并且除了其学术任命外，未披露任何相关隶属关系。
