加沙：六个月的停火让这片土地一片废墟，人民的未来前景渺茫
Gaza: six months of ceasefire have left the territory i…
Between 80 and 90% of Gaza’s people have been displaced. Much of the territory is in ruins. A viable future for its people is hard to imagine.
加沙地区有八到九成的人口流离失所。大部分土地处于废墟之中。为当地人民描绘一个可行的未来令人难以想象。
Municipal elections in the occupied West Bank and in the central Gaza city of Deir al-Balah on April 25 have been quickly framed by Fatah, the dominant faction within the Palestinian Authority (PA) , as a sweeping victory.
4月25日，在被占的西岸和加沙中部城市代尔巴拉（Deir al-Balah）举行的市政选举，很快被巴勒斯坦权力机构（PA）内的主要派系“解放塔赫”（Fatah）描绘成一场大胜。
But it’s worth taking a closer look at how the election was organised. Candidates were required to commit to the political programme of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) , which which includes the recognition of Israel, the renunciation of terrorism and the pursuit of a two-state solution. It was a condition that was widely seen as effectively excluding Hamas, which does not support these policies.
但有必要仔细看看这次选举是如何组织的。候选人被要求承诺支持“巴勒斯坦解放组织”（PLO）的政治纲领，该纲领包括承认以色列、摒弃恐怖主义和追求两国方案。这一条件被广泛认为有效地排除了不支持这些政策的哈马斯。
Hamas – which is understood to be preparing to hold elections for its leadership, which has been decimated during the 30-month conflict in Gaza – did not field candidates. A number of other groups, including the People’s Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Palestine People’s Party, FIDA, and Palestinian National Initiative, also opted not to field candidates in the election.
哈马斯——据了解，它正在为其领导层举行选举，而该领导层在加沙持续30个月的冲突中已遭受重创——没有派出候选人。包括巴勒斯坦解放人民阵线、巴勒斯坦解放民主阵线、巴勒斯坦人民党、FIDA和巴勒斯坦民族倡议等多个其他团体，也选择不参加这次选举。
It’s important, when looking at the turnout and results, to bear this in mind. In the West Bank, turnout reached around 56%, but Fatah-affiliated lists were elected unopposed in 197 councils, roughly half of all municipalities in this round.
在审视投票率和结果时，必须牢记这一点。在西岸，投票率达到了约56%，但与“解放塔赫”相关的名单在197个理事会中当选，这些理事会约占本轮所有市政机构的一半。
In the Gaza Strip, voting took place only in the central city of Deir al-Balah. Here, turnout was significantly lower, at around 23%, reflecting the mass displacement, incomplete voter registries and widespread loss of life. The Fatah-backed list won six of 15 seats. A list widely seen as aligned with Hamas secured two seats, with the remainder going to non-affiliated groups.
在加沙地带，投票仅在代尔巴拉中央城市举行。这里的投票率明显较低，约为23%，反映了大规模流离失所、不完整的选民登记册和广泛的生命损失。得到“解放塔赫”支持的名单赢得了15个席位中的六个。一个被广泛认为与哈马斯保持一致的名单获得了两个席位，其余席位则分配给了非关联团体。
For the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority, these municipal elections serve several purposes. They are presented as a way to reaffirm a political link between the West Bank and Gaza, and to signal a continued role in Gaza’s future governance. They also offer a platform promising reforms to the watching world at a moment when the PA faces pressure to demonstrate political legitimacy.
对于由“解放塔赫”主导的巴勒斯坦权力机构而言，这些市政选举具有几个目的。它们被呈现为重申西岸和加沙之间政治联系的方式，并表明其在加沙未来治理中持续发挥作用的信号。在权力机构面临展示政治合法性的压力之际，它们也提供了一个向世人承诺进行改革的平台。
While regular municipal elections have been held in the West Bank, presidential and legislative elections have not been held since 2005 and 2006. In the intervening two decades, concerns over the concentration of power under Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas have intensified. In this context, the municipal elections represented a lower-stakes form of participation. It was a way to show electoral activity without reopening the broader question of national leadership.
尽管西岸举行过常规市政选举，但总统和立法选举自2005年和2006年以来就没有举行了。在随后的二十年里，人们对“解放塔赫”领导人马哈茂德·阿巴斯权力过度集中的担忧日益加剧。在这种背景下，市政选举代表了一种风险较低的参与形式。这是一种在不重新开启国家领导权这一更广泛问题的情况下展示选举活动的途径。
Rather than a clear mandate, the results point to a constrained political landscape, shaped as much by exclusion and limited participation as by electoral competition. What these elections will change on the ground is unclear, particularly in Gaza, which remains stricken by 30 months of war.
结果并未指向明确的授权，而是指向一个受限的政治格局，其形成受到排斥和有限参与的影响，与选举竞争同样重要。这些选举在实地能带来什么改变尚不清楚，尤其是在仍遭受30个月战争蹂躏的加沙。
Gaza in ruins
加沙一片废墟
According to the UN, over 1.9 million people – between 80% and 90% of Gaza’s population – are displaced – six months into what is supposed to be a ceasefire. Families live in damaged homes, tents or overcrowded shelters, without reliable access to clean water, electricity, food or healthcare.
根据联合国的数据，在所谓的停火期六个月后，加沙超过190万人——占加沙人口的80%至90%——流离失所。家庭生活在受损的房屋、帐篷或过度拥挤的庇护所，无法可靠地获得清洁饮用水、电力、食物或医疗保健。
According to the World Health Organization, only 19 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals function even partially and nearly half of essential medicines have run out. Conditions in displacement sites are deteriorating. Around 81% of sites show signs of rodents or pests, affecting 1.45 million people and increasing public health risks.
根据世界卫生组织的数据，加沙36家医院中只有19家能部分运作，而近一半的基本药物已经耗尽。流离失所地的状况正在恶化。约81%的地点出现了啮齿动物或害虫的迹象，影响了145万人，并增加了公共卫生风险。
A recent joint World Bank–EU–UN assessment estimates that the recovery and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip will cost more than US$70 billion (£52 billion) . The restoration of housing alone accounts for US$18 billion in damage, while more than 68 million tonnes of debris will need to be removed before rebuilding can begin.
世界银行、欧盟和联合国最近联合评估估计，加沙地带的恢复和重建成本将超过700亿美元（520亿英镑）。仅住房的修复就涉及180亿美元的损失，而在重建开始之前，还需要清除超过6800万吨的瓦砾。
But reconstruction depends on access to materials, land and infrastructure and Israel continues to control all of these. Israeli authorities control the entry of aid into Gaza, funnel deliveries through a single crossing, impose inspection regimes that delay or halt shipments, and close crossings altogether. Aid entering Gaza fell by 37% in the three months to April 2026, as raids and other ceasefire violations continue.
但重建依赖于材料、土地和基础设施的获取，而以色列继续控制着所有这些资源。以色列当局控制着援助进入加沙的渠道，将物资通过单一口岸输送，实施延误或阻止货物的检查制度，甚至完全关闭过境口岸。由于袭击和其他停火违规行为的持续，进入加沙的援助物资在截至2026年4月的三个月内下降了37%。
Reconstruction without Palestinians
重建没有巴勒斯坦人
While the people of Gaza remain in these conditions, outsiders are moving ahead with plans to shape Gaza’s future. In November 2025, the UN Security Council endorsed resolution 2803, backing a US-led initiative known as the Board of Peace to oversee the territory. When it first met on February 19, the Board of Peace pledged around US$17 billion – including US$10 billion from the US and additional commitments from Gulf states such as the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
尽管加沙人民仍处于这种困境，但外部势力正在推进塑造加沙未来的计划。2025年11月，联合国安理会通过了第2803号决议，支持了一个名为“和平委员会”的美国主导倡议，该委员会负责监督该地区。该委员会于2月19日首次会议时承诺了约170亿美元——其中包括美国提供的100亿美元，以及来自阿联酋、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和科威特等海湾国家的额外承诺。
Palestinians have no representatives on the Board of Peace, which is chaired by the US president Donald Trump, who also sets the agenda and calls meetings. Israel, however, does, as do Trump’s most prominent envoys, Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff, who both have considerable business and real estate interests in the Middle East.
巴勒斯坦人在和平委员会中没有任何代表，该委员会由美国总统唐纳德·特朗普担任主席，他同时制定议程并召集会议。然而，以色列有代表，特朗普最著名的特使——贾里德·库什纳和斯蒂文·维特科夫——也是如此，他们都在中东拥有可观的商业和房地产利益。
Palestinian civil society organisations have warned that the Board of Peace excludes Palestinians from meaningful decision-making and undermines their right to self-determination. European governments have also raised concerns about the concentration of authority in the hands of the US president and the lack of oversight.
巴勒斯坦民间社会组织警告说，和平委员会将巴勒斯坦排除在有意义的决策之外，并破坏了其自决权。欧洲各国政府也对权力集中在美国总统手中以及缺乏监督表示担忧。
Control over funding is also taking shape. The Gaza Reconstruction and Development (Grad) fund is structured as a World Bank Financial Intermediary Fund, with the bank acting as “limited trustee”. In practice, this means the World Bank manages donor money but has no say in how the money is spent. But World Bank president Ajay Banga also sits on the Board of Peace executive board, placing the institution inside the political structure that sets priorities.
资金控制权也在成形。加沙重建与发展（Grad）基金被构建为一个世界银行金融中介基金，该银行充当“有限受托人”。实际上，这意味着世界银行管理着捐助者的资金，但对资金如何使用没有发言权。但世界银行行长阿杰·班加也担任和平委员会执行董事，从而将该机构置于制定优先事项的政治结构之中。
In documents related to the Grad, the World Bank describes this moment as an opportunity to “fundamentally reshape” Gaza’s economy through private investment. The vision, as has been widely covered in the media, is to transform Gaza into a “hub” in the Imec development corridor that links India to the Middle East and beyond. The rebuilt Gaza would include a major port, high-tech industrial development, data centres and tourism resorts. Little provision has been made for the restoration of Palestinian homes, healthcare or water and power infrastructure.
在与Grad相关的文件中，世界银行将当前时刻描述为通过私人投资“从根本上重塑”加沙经济的机会。媒体广泛报道的愿景是，将加沙转变为连接印度和中东及更远地区的伊梅克发展走廊的“枢纽”。重建后的加沙将包括一个主要港口、高科技工业开发区、数据中心和旅游度假区。但对于巴勒斯坦家庭、医疗保健或水和电力基础设施的恢复，几乎没有做任何安排。
Recent discussions with the Dubai-based port operator and logistics company DP World appear to highlight Board of Peace priorities. In April 2026, representatives linked to the board explored bringing the company in to manage key parts of Gaza’s supply chains, including warehousing, tracking systems and the movement of both humanitarian and commercial goods.
近期与总部位于迪拜的港口运营商和物流公司DP World的讨论，似乎突显了和平委员会的优先事项。2026年4月，与该委员会相关的代表探讨了引入该公司来管理加沙关键供应链的部分，包括仓储、跟踪系统以及人道和商业物资的运输。
The talks also included proposals for a new port in Gaza or on the Egyptian coast, as well as a free-trade zone. It’s a plan for market-led development in its most concentrated form, which envisages the reconstruction of Gaza to serve regional and global economic interests. It reflects external priorities, not the needs on the ground in Gaza.
这些谈判还包括在加沙或埃及海岸建立新港口，以及建立自由贸易区。这是一个最集中的形式的市场主导型发展计划，设想将重建加沙以服务于区域和全球经济利益。它反映的是外部的优先事项，而非加沙当地的实际需求。
Rafeef Ziadah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
拉菲夫·齐亚达（Rafeef Ziadah）不为任何受益于本文的公司或组织工作、咨询、拥有股份或接受资金，并且除了其学术任命外，未披露任何相关隶属关系。
