يتصاعد اليمين المتطرف في فرنسا وألمانيا وأجزاء من أوروبا. ماذا سيعني هذا لأوكرانيا؟

In recent local elections in the United Kingdom and Australia, right-wing populism has appeared to be on the march. Support has surged for the Reform UK and One Nation parties.

Media speculation about a future Prime Minister Nigel Farage, or even a Prime Minister Pauline Hanson, is no longer off limits. Right-wing populists are already in power in other countries in Europe, such as Italy.

The next big electoral tests for the far right in Europe will be in Germany and France.

Is this surge in Europe real, and how successful can far-right parties be in actually getting elected?

A far-right Italy – and Austria may be next

The most successful transformation of far-right populism in a large European country has been Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. It won the most votes in the 2022 election and leads a right-wing coalition government.

The party has a fascist history, anti-immigration rhetoric and attempts at concentrating power. Despite this, Meloni has managed to somewhat normalise her government in Europe by strongly backing the European Union, NATO and Ukraine (in contrast to some other far-right parties) .

In Austria, the platform of the far-right Freedom Party includes xenophobic and Eurosceptic propaganda and opposition to EU climate policies. It also opposes support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

It has been in government as a junior partner previously, but won the 2024 elections with almost 29% of the vote. Although it was kept out of power by a coalition of centrist parties, it seems only a matter of time before it leads a government in Vienna.

The far right surging in France and Germany

Parties such as National Rally in France and Alternative for Germany (AfD) have historically undermined the European Union, while aligning themselves with the growing autocratisation and authoritarianism of Putin’s Russia.

Two regional German elections are due in September, where Alternative for Germany are leading polls.

National Rally candidates are also preforming strongly in polls for France’s presidential election due in April 2017.

In other words, right-wing populists may soon acquire significant executive power in the EU’s two most influential countries. This could affect Europe’s future commitments to Ukraine.

Cosying up to Russia

In Germany, the AfD proposes ending military aid for Ukraine, ending sanctions on Russia and restoring Russian fossil fuel imports.

The party’s main focus is on restricting immigration and asylum. It promotes “remigration”. This radical idea proposes up to two million “unassimilated German citizens” could be “relocated” to a “model state” in North Africa, while sharply reducing immigration and restricting asylum.

The party has been labelled an “extremist entity” by Germany’s federal domestic intelligence agency.

Despite this, the AfD is leading polls for two key regional elections in September in the former communist East Germany (and may end up securing an absolute majority in at least one) .

Traditional parties have established a “firewall” or “cordon sanitaire” that historically has prevented coalitions with the AfD, at both national or regional levels.

However, with AfD’s growing support, centre-right parties may feel pressure to reconsider.

National Rally seeks normalisation in France

National Rally (more widely known as RN) was founded in 1972 and had early links to neo-fascism.

However, leader Marine Le Pen (who took over from her father in 2011) has gone to great lengths to normalise the party and broaden its appeal. She distanced the party from her father’s antisemitism and focused more on anti-immigration, French nationalism and opposing Islamic extremism.

She reached the presidential runoffs in 2017 and 2022 but was comfortably defeated by centrist Emmanuel Macron both times.

Since then, however, RN has increased support. With Macron constitutionally unable to run in the next election, Le Pen – or her protégé Jordan Bardella if she is legally barred from running – is leading polls in a final round match-up against most candidates.

RN has traditionally been close to Putin and Russia. Le Pen supports Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea and has committed to France leaving NATO’s integrated command structure.

But the Russia-friendly rhetoric has been toned down since the 2022 full invasion of Ukraine, which is politically toxic in much of Western Europe.

While it will probably be some time before the AfD joins a governing coalition in Germany, there is a very real chance RN will win next year’s presidential election in France. This would give it a powerful executive role within the EU’s only nuclear power and permanent UN Security Council member.

The path ahead

The most successful right-wing populist in Europe in recent years was Victor Orbán. He led the Fidesz party, which held power in Hungary for 16 years until a monumental election victory for the pro-EU opposition in April.

The importance of this victory for Ukraine became immediately evident when the new Hungarian government abandoned its veto of a €90 billion EU loan (about A$146 billion) . The loan, which remains conditional on continued democratic and anti-corruption reforms, will fund a significant portion of Ukraine’s military and financial requirements over the next two years as it fights Russia’s brutal invasion.

Liberals and pro-EU types were relieved at the fall of Orbán and the passage of the loan. While this funding will assist Ukraine over the next two years, there are long-term questions regarding EU support for the country if far-right populists win more power in the EU’s most powerful states – exactly what Putin is holding out for.

Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.