内塔尼亚胡承诺将对真主党“完成任务”。这是一个他无法兑现的承诺。
Netanyahu has pledged to ‘finish the job’ against Hezbo…
The Israeli prime minister is using the ‘Gaza playbook’ to decimate southern Lebanon, but it won’t eliminate the threat from the militant group.
以色列总理正用“加沙模式”摧毁南黎巴嫩，但这无法消除来自该激进团体的威胁。
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire three weeks ago. The violence, however, hasn’t stopped.
以色列和黎巴嫩三周前同意停火。然而，暴力并未停止。
In recent days, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 40 people and the military has issued evacuation orders for residents of ten villages and towns in southern Lebanon, where it has established a security buffer zone.
近日来，以色列的空袭已造成至少40人死亡，军方已向黎巴嫩南部十个村镇的居民发布了撤离令，该地区已建立了一个安全缓冲带。
According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this zone is needed to protect Israel from future attacks by the Hezbollah militant group. He said it is “much stronger, more intense, more continuous, and more solid than we had previously”.
根据总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的说法，该区域的设立是为了保护以色列免受真主党（Hezbollah）武装组织的未来袭击。他说，这“比我们以前的任何时候都要更强大、更激烈、更持续、更稳固”。
Critics, however, contend Israel is adopting the “Gaza playbook” in this buffer zone, mirroring its actions in Gaza after a fragile ceasefire was agreed to last October.
然而，批评人士认为，以色列正在该缓冲带采用“加沙模式”，模仿了去年10月达成脆弱停火协议后在加沙采取的行动。
Militarily, Israel is hitting an already-weakened Hezbollah as hard as it can to deplete its capabilities and force it out of its southern Lebanon stronghold.
在军事上，以色列正在全力打击已虚弱的真主党，以耗尽其能力，迫使其离开其在黎巴嫩南部的据点。
Israel calls this strategy “mowing the grass”. It has long viewed this strategy as the best way to establish a level of deterrence against Hamas and Hezbollah, which cannot be defeated through conventional military means.
以色列称这种战略为“修剪草坪”。它长期以来一直认为，这是建立针对哈马斯和真主党威慑水平的最佳方式，而这些组织无法通过常规军事手段击败。
Like it did in Gaza, Israel is also aiming to make the buffer zone uninhabitable for residents. In late March, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz declared:
与在加沙的做法一样，以色列也旨在使该缓冲带对居民失去宜居性。以色列国防部长以色列·卡茨在3月下旬宣布：
All houses in villages near the Lebanese border will be destroyed, in accordance with the model used in Rafah and Beit Hanoun in Gaza, in order to permanently remove the threats near the border to northern residents.
所有位于黎巴嫩边境附近的村庄的房屋都将按照在加沙拉法和贝特哈努恩使用的模式进行摧毁，目的是永久消除靠近边境对北部居民的威胁。
As part of this, Israel has destroyed all the bridges across the Litani River, effectively isolating southern Lebanon from the rest of the country. It is also systematically destroying or severely damaging towns, villages and infrastructure in the region.
作为此举的一部分，以色列摧毁了所有横跨利塔尼河的桥梁，有效地将黎巴嫩南部与该国其他地区隔离开来。它还在该地区系统性地摧毁或严重破坏城镇、村庄和基础设施。
This “Gaza playbook” has come with a significant human cost. Since this latest conflict with Hezbollah began in early March, Israel’s attacks have killed more than 2,600 Lebanese and displaced another 1.2 million from their homes.
这种“加沙模式”带来了巨大的代价。自与真主党最近的冲突于3月初开始以来，以色列的袭击已造成超过2,600名黎巴嫩人死亡，并使另外120万人流离失所。
Netanyahu is becoming trapped
内塔尼亚胡陷入困境
Yet, despite achieving many successes against Hezbollah, Netanyahu is in danger of overreaching in his claims to be able to defeat one of Israel’s nemeses.
然而，尽管在对抗真主党方面取得了许多成功，内塔尼亚胡却面临着在声称能够击败以色列的宿敌之一时，可能越权的危险。
For decades, successive Israeli governments, particularly those headed by Netanyahu, have convinced the Israeli public that Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in an existential struggle.
数十年间，历届以色列政府，特别是内塔尼亚胡领导的政府，一直说服以色列民众，以色列和真主党正在进行一场生存斗争。
Many Israelis now expect Netanyahu to deliver on his promise and finally rid them of this threat forever.
许多以色列人现在期望内塔尼亚胡兑现承诺，并最终永远摆脱这一威胁。
In a recent poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, 80% of respondents supported continuing the fight against Hezbollah irrespective of any possible peace deal between the US and Iran, and even if this created tensions with the Trump administration.
根据以色列民主研究所进行的一项最新民意调查，80%的受访者支持继续与真主党作战，无论美国和伊朗之间是否达成任何和平协议，甚至即使这会与特朗普政府造成紧张关系。
This poses a political threat to Netanyahu as he faces becoming trapped between two opposing realities.
这给内塔尼亚胡带来了政治威胁，因为他面临着被困在两种对立现实之间的境地。
Delivering on a false promise
兑现虚假承诺
The first centres on the “mowing the grass” strategy. This strategy has long served as good propaganda and as an exemplar of the government protecting its people. But it was never intended to completely defeat the threats posed by Hezbollah or Hamas. When it comes to Hezbollah, Israel’s military simply cannot completely defeat a resistance movement that is so embedded in the social, political and cultural fabric of Lebanon. This would require not just a military victory, but the subjugation of its supporters and the delegitimisation of its ideology.
第一个重点是“修剪草坪”战略。该战略长期以来一直被用作良好的宣传手段，也是政府保护人民的典范。但它从未旨在彻底击败真主党或哈马斯构成的威胁。就真主党而言，以色列军队不可能彻底击败一个根植于黎巴嫩社会、政治和文化结构中的抵抗运动。这需要的不仅仅是军事胜利，还需要压制其支持者并使其意识形态失去合法性。
The intention of the “mowing the grass” strategy is to manage the threats posed by Hezbollah and Hamas, not destroy them.
“修剪草坪”战略的目的是管理来自真主党和哈马斯的威胁，而不是摧毁它们。
If Israel is able to cause substantial damage to their political and military capabilities – in addition to destroying local infrastructure – the groups are then forced to focus on survival and revival, rather than on threatening Israel.
如果以色列能够对其政治和军事能力造成重大损害——除了摧毁当地基础设施之外——这些组织就会被迫专注于生存和复苏，而不是威胁以色列。
From Israel’s perspective, this provides some breathing room until the threat reemerges and it is time to “mow the grass” again.
从以色列的角度来看，这提供了一段喘息时间，直到威胁再次出现，需要再次“修剪草坪”。
From a political perspective, this strategy also allows Israel to justify its continuous military operations. This has been the cornerstone of Netanyahu’s political revival since the Hamas attacks of 2023, allowing him to maintain a constant sense of crisis that requires ever-increasing levels of violence.
从政治角度来看，该战略也允许以色列为其持续的军事行动提供辩护。自2023年哈马斯袭击以来，这是内塔尼亚胡政治复苏的基石，使他能够维持一种需要不断升级暴力程度的持续危机感。
But Netanyahu has changed the narrative, shifting from just “managing” Israel’s conflict with both Hezbollah and Hamas, to “dismantling” the groups and “finishing the job”.
但内塔尼亚胡改变了叙事，从仅仅“管理”以色列与真主党和哈马斯的冲突，转变为“瓦解”这些组织并“完成任务”。
It is clear the Israeli public wants Netanyahu to deliver on this promise.
很明显，以色列民众希望内塔尼亚胡兑现这一承诺。
Trump forcing his hand
特朗普逼迫他出手
The second reality facing Netanyahu is the potential that US President Donald Trump will agree to a permanent ceasefire with Iran that forces Israel to cease its hostilities against Hezbollah.
尼坦雅胡面临的第二个现实是，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能会同意与伊朗达成永久停火协议，从而迫使以色列停止对真安叶斯武装的敌对行动。
Since the tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran, Netanyahu has been trying to separate Israel’s conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah. This would allow him to continue the military’s operations against Hezbollah and claim a key strategic victory.
自美国和伊朗达成初步停火协议以来，尼坦雅胡一直试图将以色列与伊朗和真安叶斯武装的冲突分离开来。这将使他能够继续对真安叶斯武装进行军事行动，并宣称取得一项关键的战略胜利。
But Iran is demanding that any ceasefire it reaches with the US include Hezbollah.
但伊朗要求，任何与美国达成的停火协议都必须包括真安叶斯武装。
This places Netanyahu in a bind. If he does agree to a permanent peace deal, this would leave a severely wounded but not-yet-destroyed Hezbollah in place. With Hamas and the Iranian regime also still intact (albeit severely wounded) , this would represent a triple disaster for Netanyahu.
这使尼坦雅胡陷入了两难境地。如果他同意达成永久和平协议，那将留下一个虽然伤痕累累但尚未被摧毁的真安叶斯武装。考虑到哈马斯和伊朗政权仍然存在（尽管伤势严重），这对尼坦雅胡来说将构成一场三重灾难。
The backlash is already starting. Last month, Israeli opposition leader Yair Golan accused Netanyahu of lying:
反弹已经开始出现。上个月，以色列反对党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰指责尼坦雅胡撒谎：
He promised a historic victory and security for generations, and in practice, we got one of the most severe strategic failures Israel has ever known.
他承诺了世代的辉煌胜利和安全，但实际上，我们得到的却是以色列有史以来最严重的战略失败之一。
Criticism like this could have a huge effect on the Israeli elections, due before the end of this year.
这种批评可能会对今年年底举行的以色列选举产生巨大影响。
Netanyahu is desperate to win these elections to forestall his long-running corruption trial. As such, he would be loath to risk breaking with the Israeli public on his promise to finish Hezbollah. However, that may mean breaking with the US and its essential military, political and diplomatic support.
尼坦雅胡迫切希望赢得这些选举，以避免其长期以来的腐败审判。因此，他不愿冒着违背对真安叶斯武装的承诺而与以色列公众产生裂痕的风险。然而，这可能意味着与美国及其至关重要的军事、政治和外交支持脱节。
While the “mowing the grass” strategy gave Netanyahu new political life after Hamas’s October 7 attacks, his failure to match his rhetoric to actual results may now prove to be his Achilles’ heel.
虽然“修剪草坪”的策略在哈马斯10月7日袭击事件后为尼坦雅胡带来了新的政治生命，但他未能将言辞与实际成果相匹配的失败，现在可能成了他的阿喀琉斯之踵。
Martin Kear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
马丁·卡尔不为任何受益于本文的公司或组织工作、咨询、拥有股份或接受资金，并且除了其学术任命外，没有披露任何相关的隶属关系。
