世界杯与人口贩运：研究揭示了大型体育赛事中的真实风险
The World Cup and human trafficking: What the research …
Public awareness campaigns around the World Cup and other sporting events are well intentioned – but not backed by research.
围绕世界杯和其他体育赛事的公众意识宣传活动是出于好意的——但缺乏研究支持。
As U.S. cities prepare to host the FIFA World Cup, familiar warnings about human trafficking “spikes” at major sporting events have reemerged.
随着美国城市准备举办国际足联世界杯，关于大型体育赛事期间人口贩运“激增”的熟悉警告再次出现。
Media outlets point to elevated risks, advocacy groups roll out awareness campaigns, and city authorities and law enforcement ramp up anti-trafficking efforts.
媒体指出风险升高，倡导组织推出意识宣传活动，城市当局和执法部门加强了反贩运工作。
This is all well intentioned. But as experts in human trafficking and the commercial sexual exploitation of children, we believe the talk of an increased risk might be misplaced. Two decades of empirical research across events such as the Super Bowl, Olympic Games and prior World Cups show no consistent evidence that human trafficking increases because of large sporting events. Further, framing trafficking as episodic and event-based can be counterproductive.
所有这些都是出于善意。但作为人口贩运和儿童商业性性剥削领域的专家，我们认为谈论风险增加可能是错误的。二十年来，对超级碗、奥运会和以往世界杯等活动的实证研究并未显示出人口贩运会因为大型体育赛事而增加的持续证据。此外，将贩运定性为偶发和基于事件的，可能会适得其反。
The ‘flashlight effect’
手电筒效应
The belief that major sporting events produce spikes in human trafficking has circulated for more than two decades, gaining international prominence around the 2004 Olympic Games and reappearing consistently during subsequent FIFA World Cup tournaments, Olympic Games and Super Bowls.
关于大型体育赛事会引发人口贩卖激增的信念，已经流传了二十多年，在2004年奥运会前后获得了国际关注，并在随后的国际足联世界杯、奥运会和超级碗等赛事中持续出现。
The narrative persists largely because it appears intuitively plausible: Large influxes of tourists, temporary workers, nightlife activity and commercial spending are assumed to increase demand for commercial sex generally and also exploitative labor.
这种叙事之所以持续存在，很大程度上是因为它在直觉上是合理的：人们假设大量游客、临时工、夜生活活动和商业消费的增加，会普遍提高对商业性交易的需求，也会增加对剥削性劳动的需求。
While these events do temporarily increase tourism and commercial sex markets, trafficking itself is not event-driven.
尽管这些活动确实会暂时增加旅游业和商业性交易市场，但人口贩卖本身并非由特定事件驱动。
Studies examining arrest records, hotline calls and social service engagement during major events find fluctuations consistent with increased visibility and reporting, but not necessarily increased victimization.
研究人员对大型活动期间的逮捕记录、热线电话呼叫和社工服务参与情况进行了调查，发现的波动与可见度和报告率的提高一致，但并不一定意味着受害者人数的增加。
Research shows that while some major sporting events correspond with increases in online commercial sex advertisements, those increases are not unique to the event and are comparable to other large conventions, holiday weekends or tourism-driven gatherings. For example, a National Institute of Justice-supported study analyzing escort advertisements during large public events concluded that Super Bowls “did not stand out” relative to other events in terms of changes in the commercial sex market.
研究表明，虽然一些大型体育赛事与在线商业性交易广告的增加相关，但这些增加并非该赛事独有，与其他大型会议、假日周末或旅游驱动的聚会相比是可比的。例如，一项由国家司法研究所支持的分析大型公共活动期间陪侍广告的研究得出结论，超级碗在商业性交易市场的变化方面“没有突出表现”。
Similarly, anti-trafficking organizations within the United States such at the Polaris Project and Anti-Trafficking Review have noted that increases in calls to the National Human Trafficking Hotline during major sporting events likely reflect intensified publicity campaigns and greater hotline visibility rather than confirmed increases in trafficking itself.
类似地，美国国内的反贩卖组织，如极光项目（Polaris Project）和反贩卖评论（Anti-Trafficking Review）指出，大型体育赛事期间拨打国家人口贩卖热线的呼叫增加，可能反映的是宣传活动和热线可见度的增强，而非贩卖行为本身的确认增加。
Scholars have described this phenomenon as a “flashlight effect,” in which increased media attention, specialized law enforcement operations and public awareness efforts generate more reports, arrests and detections because more people are actively looking for trafficking indicators – not necessarily because more exploitation is occurring.
学者们将这种现象描述为“手电筒效应”，即媒体关注度的提高、专业的执法行动和公众意识的提升，会产生更多的报告、逮捕和发现，因为更多的人正在积极寻找贩卖的迹象——而这不一定意味着剥削行为的增加。
In other words, heightened awareness campaigns may produce detection effects rather than there actually being more incidents. Conflating the two leads to misinterpretation of trends and misallocation of resources.
换句话说，提高意识的宣传活动可能产生的是“发现效应”，而不是实际发生了更多事件。将两者混为一谈会导致对趋势的误解和资源的错配。
The human trafficking myths
人口贩卖的迷思
The narrative that people face an increased risk of becoming the victims of trafficking at big sporting events is based on a number of myths and misconceptions. One is that traffickers will travel to host cities to abduct or exploit unknown victims.
关于人们在大型体育赛事中面临成为受害者的风险增加的说法，是建立在一系列迷思和误解之上的。其中一种迷思是，贩卖者会前往主办城市绑架或剥削不知名的受害者。
In reality, most trafficking – both sex and labor – involves recruitment through existing relationships: intimate partners, family members, acquaintances or trusted community ties. Grooming, coercion and economic dependence unfold over time, often long before any event occurs. Event-focused enforcement strategies therefore risk targeting the wrong mechanisms of exploitation while neglecting root problems.
事实上，大多数贩卖——无论是性贩卖还是劳工贩卖——都涉及通过现有关系进行招募：亲密伴侣、家庭成员、熟人或信任的社区联系。圈套、胁迫和经济依赖是随着时间推移逐渐形成的，往往在任何事件发生之前很久就已经开始了。因此，以赛事为重点的执法策略，有可能会误伤错误的剥削机制，而忽略了根本问题。
Another common myth is that trafficking tied to these events primarily involves the sex trafficking of women and girls by organized criminal networks. This framing obscures the prevalence of labor trafficking and the diverse nature of victims. Evidence from several national datasets shows that labor trafficking occurs across industries likely to scale up during major events such as hospitality, construction, food service and cleaning services.
另一个常见的迷思是，与这些赛事相关的贩卖主要涉及有组织犯罪网络对女性和女童的性贩卖。这种定性掩盖了劳工贩卖的普遍性以及受害者群体的多样性。来自多个国家数据集的证据表明，劳工贩卖发生在大型活动期间可能扩大规模的各个行业，例如酒店业、建筑业、餐饮服务和清洁服务。
However, labor trafficking often gets overlooked. Moreover, victims can include men, boys, LGBTQ+ people and U.S. citizens – many of whom do not fit the sensationalized narrative that dominates event-related discourse.
然而，劳工贩卖往往被忽视。此外，受害者群体可以包括男性、男孩、LGBTQ+群体和美国公民——其中许多人并不符合主导赛事相关讨论的、被夸大的叙事。
These myths are not benign. Rather, they have measurable consequences. First, they distort policy by shifting resources toward short-term, high-visibility enforcement – through law enforcement stings, raids and temporary task forces. This comes at the expense of more sustained investment in trauma-informed care and programs that address root causes, such as housing stability.
这些迷思并非无害。相反，它们具有可衡量的后果。首先，它们通过将资源转移到短期、高可见度的执法行动（例如警方突袭、搜查和临时工作组），扭曲了政策制定。这是以牺牲对创伤知情护理和解决根本原因（例如住房稳定）的持续投资为代价的。
Second, they contribute to victim misidentification. Individuals who do not resemble the “typical victim” portrayed in media – such as those with convicted of violent crime, substance use or complex trauma histories – may be overlooked or even criminalized.
其次，它们导致了受害者身份的误判。那些不符合媒体描绘的“典型受害者”形象的个体——例如那些有暴力犯罪、药物滥用或复杂创伤史记录的人——可能会被忽视甚至被刑事化。
In addition, these myth-driven campaigns can inadvertently increase surveillance and policing of marginalized communities, including immigrants, sex workers and unhoused individuals, without improving safety or access to services.
此外，这些由迷思驱动的运动可能会无意中增加对边缘化社区的监视和警务，包括移民、性工作者和无家可归者，但却没有改善安全或服务获取。
Limiting the field
限制范围
While it could be argued that any increased attention to human trafficking is welcomed, there is a downside: Treating the problem as episodic and event-based can obscure the developmental and cumulative nature of trafficking.
虽然可以争论说，任何增加对人口贩运的关注都是受欢迎的，但它也有缺点：将该问题视为偶发性和事件驱动的，可能会掩盖贩运的发展性和累积性本质。
Trafficking is closely linked to adverse childhood experiences, poly-victimization – that is, being exposed to multiple different forms of victimization across one’s lifespan – and structural inequities.
贩运与不良童年经历、多重受害经历（即在整个生命周期内暴露于多种不同形式的受害经历）以及结构性不平等密切相关。
Focusing on high-profile events like the World Cup limits the ability of communities fighting human trafficking to build longitudinal, prevention-oriented strategies that intervene early and across child welfare, education, healthcare and housing systems.
关注世界杯等高知名度事件，限制了打击人口贩运的社区建立纵向的、预防导向的策略的能力，这些策略需要早期干预并涵盖儿童福利、教育、医疗保健和住房系统。
To bolster prevention, we believe public attention and resources must move from panic to precision. That means aligning interventions with evidence. It also means investing in cross-sector identification and referral systems, expanding labor trafficking detection, supporting survivor-led services and addressing the structural conditions that create vulnerability at all times – not just every four years.
为了加强预防，我们认为公众的关注和资源必须从恐慌转向精准。这意味着使干预措施与证据保持一致。这也意味着投资于跨部门识别和转介系统、扩大劳工贩运检测、支持幸存者主导的服务，并解决在任何时候——而不仅仅是每四年——都会造成脆弱性的结构性条件。
Kathleen Murray Preble has received funding in the past and/or currently from the Missouri Foundation for Health (MFFH) , the Missouri Collaborative Against Human Trafficking (MCAHT) , and DOJ Bureau of Justice Assistance. The opinions expressed in this article represent those of the author and do not reflect the views of the DOJ, MFFH, the MCAHT, UTA, or the University of Texas System.
Kathleen Murray Preble 曾获得或目前正在获得来自密苏里州健康基金会（MFFH）、密苏里州反人口贩运协作组织（MCAHT）和司法部司法援助局的资助。本文所表达的观点代表作者的观点，并不代表司法部、MFFH、MCAHT、UTA或德克萨斯大学系统的观点。
Jennifer E. O’Brien has received funding from the Centers for Disease Control, National Institutes of Health, and the National Institute of Justice. She is affiliated with The University of Texas at Arlington School of Social Work. The opinions expressed in this article represent those of the author and do not reflect the views of The CDC, NIH, NIJ, The University of Texas at Arlington, or the University of Texas System.
Jennifer E. O’Brien 曾获得来自疾病控制中心、美国国立卫生研究院和国家司法研究所的资助。她隶属于德克萨斯大学阿灵顿分校社会工作学院。本文所表达的观点代表作者的观点，并不代表CDC、NIH、NIJ、德克萨斯大学阿灵顿分校或德克萨斯大学系统的观点。
