民主党能否赢得美国中期选举的国会控制权？所有目光都聚焦于这些关键的选举
Could the Democrats win control of Congress in the US m…
The Democrats have a good chance at winning both houses of Congress, but the Republicans still have some advantages.
民主党赢得国会两院的机会很大，但共和党仍然拥有一些优势。
US presidential elections are always about a choice for the future. Who do you want to lead the country? Who will best address your needs?
美国总统选举总是关乎对未来的选择。你希望谁来领导国家？谁能最好地满足你的需求？
But the US midterm elections – where all the seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are on the ballot – are always a referendum on the president and his party in Congress.
但美国中期选举——届时众议院的所有席位和三分之一的参议院席位都将投票决定——总是对总统及其在国会党派的一次公投。
So, given US President Donald Trump’s current popularity, what does this mean for the Republicans’ chances in November?
那么，考虑到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普目前的受欢迎程度，这对共和党在十一月的机会意味着什么？
Struggling with key demographics
在关键人口群体中挣扎
In short, Trump is in terrible shape politically at the moment. His net-approval rate is in negative territory in 44 of the 50 states in the country. His national approval rating is also well below 40%, and is heading lower.
简而言之，特朗普目前在政治上处境艰难。在美国50个州中有44个州的净支持率处于负值。他的全国支持率也远低于40%，并且正在持续走低。
Polling consistently shows most voters do not approve of Trump’s management of major issues, including the economy, inflation, jobs, health care, immigration and foreign policy. His decision to launch the Iran war in late February had the lowest approval of any war in American history. It remains among the most unpopular wars.
民意调查一致显示，大多数选民对特朗普管理重大问题，包括经济、通货膨胀、就业、医疗保健、移民和外交政策，都不满意。他于二月下旬发动伊拉克战争的决定，获得了美国历史上任何战争最低的赞成率。它仍然是民怨最高的战争之一。
Inflation is accelerating in the US. Credit card delinquencies are at a 15-year high. With no end to the war in sight, and petrol so expensive, consumer sentiment has crashed to historic lows.
美国通货膨胀正在加速。信用卡拖欠率处于15年高位。由于战争看不到结束的迹象，加上汽油价格昂贵，消费者情绪已暴跌至历史低点。
While Trump has broadly retained support among Republicans, his approval rating has declined among independent and Latino voters – two key demographic groups that were crucial to Trump’s election two years ago.
虽然特朗普在共和党人中仍保持了广泛的支持，但他在独立选民和拉丁裔选民中的支持率有所下降——这两个关键人口群体在两年前对特朗普的当选至关重要。
A clear path in the House
众议院的清晰路径
Does this mean the Democrats will stroll to victory in the midterms? It’s not quite that simple. US politics is extremely volatile, and there are fewer and fewer seats that are truly contestable.
这是否意味着民主党将在中期选举中一路平稳走向胜利？事情没那么简单。美国政治极其动荡，真正可竞争的席位越来越少。
To control the House, the Democrats need a net gain of three seats, and in the Senate, four seats. Based on my calculations of the six midterm elections this century, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and three seats in the Senate.
要控制众议院，民主党需要净增三个席位；要在参议院，则需要四个席位。根据我对本世纪六次中期选举的计算，总统所属党派平均在众议院损失了27个席位，在参议院损失了三个席位。
The only president to buck the trend was George W. Bush in 2002. Bush’s approval rating was still extremely high – 65% – one year after the September 11 terrorist attacks. The US invasion of Iraq, which would prove deeply unpopular, was still six months away. The Republicans gained eight seats in the House and two in the Senate in those midterms.
唯一逆转这一趋势的总统是乔治·W·布什，时间是2002年。布什的好感度当时仍然极高——65%——这是在“9·11”恐怖袭击发生一年之后。美国入侵伊拉克，这一举动被证明极不受欢迎，距离当时还有六个月。在那些中期选举中，共和党在众议院增加了八个席位，在参议院增加了两个席位。
This year, the Republicans are more vulnerable in the House than they are in the Senate.
今年，共和党在众议院的脆弱程度高于在参议院。
To protect their tiny majority in the House, Trump and the Republicans have launched a war to gerrymander congressional districts in several Republican-controlled states to boost the number of seats they can win this year. Democrats countered by redrawing the maps to favour their party in California.
为了保护他们在众议院的微弱多数，特朗普和共和党发起了一场“划分选区”的战争，在多个共和党控制的州划分国会选区，以增加今年能赢得的席位数量。民主党则通过重新绘制地图，在加州偏向了本党。
And last month, the conservative US Supreme Court gave the Republicans another edge when it ruled that protections under the Voting Rights Act to help ensure Black-held seats in the South were unconstitutional. This could threaten up to six black Democratic members in November.
上个月，保守派美国最高法院做出了裁决，认为《投票权法案》中旨在确保南方黑人所占席位的保护措施是违宪的，这为共和党又增加了一个优势。这可能会威胁到十一月最多六名黑人民主党议员的席位。
But several Republicans are expected to be ousted from their marginal seats across the country. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report predicts:
但预计有几名共和党议员将在全国范围内失去其边缘席位。库克政治报告的艾米·沃尔特预测：
It’s more likely than not that almost all of the closest races break toward the party out of power (in this case, the Democrats) . So winning 60 to 70 percent of the closest races is not a huge lift [to capture the House].
几乎所有最接近的选举都更有可能倾向于失去权力的政党（在本例中，指民主党）。因此，赢得60%到70%最接近的选举，并不是一个巨大的提升（来夺取众议院）。
Senate up for grabs?
参议院是否岌岌可危？
By contrast, the Republicans have been relatively confident of their position to retain control of the Senate.
相比之下，共和党人对他们保留参议院控制权的位置相对自信。
The seats up for election this year are mostly in states that voted for Trump. That gives Democrats a very narrow path towards winning control of the Senate through states like Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Maine and North Carolina.
今年选举的席位大多来自投票支持特朗普的州。这让民主党通过德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州、缅因州和北卡罗来纳州等州，获得控制参议院的道路非常狭窄。
In both Ohio and North Carolina, the Democratic candidates are both popular politicians – former Senator Sherrod Brown and former Governor Roy Cooper – and are doing well in the polls. In Alaska, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is facing a very well-regarded former House member, Mary Peltola.
在俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州，民主党候选人——前参议员谢罗德·布朗和前州长罗伊·库珀——都是受欢迎的政客，并在民调中表现良好。在阿拉斯加州，共和党现任参议员丹·萨利文面临着一位备受推崇的前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉。
Republican Senator Susan Collins is also looking very vulnerable in Democratic-leaning Maine, though the presumptive Democratic candidate, Graham Platner, has been dogged by some controversies lately.
共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯在倾向民主党的缅因州也显得非常脆弱，尽管民主党拟选人选格雷厄姆·普拉特纳最近一直被一些争议困扰。
The race that could decide the Senate, however, is in suddenly competitive Texas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 38 years.
然而，决定参议院走向的比赛是在德克萨斯州，这个州突然变得具有竞争力，并且已经有38年没有选出民主党人进入参议院。
Trump successfully urged Republicans to support the controversial former attorney general, Ken Paxton, over veteran incumbent John Cornyn in last week’s primary. Paxton, who has previously been indicted on felony securities fraud charges and impeached by the Texas legislature, will now face the rising political star James Talarico, a progressive Christian Democrat. Talarico is leading in some polls.
特朗普在上周初选成功地敦促共和党人支持有争议的前总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，而不是经验丰富的现任参议员约翰·科尼恩。帕克斯顿此前曾因重罪证券欺诈指控被起诉，并被德州立法机构弹劾，现在他将面临一位冉冉升起的政治新星、进步派基督教民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。塔拉里科在一些民调中处于领先地位。
The Democrats probably have to worry about one seat in Michigan. The Republican candidate, former House member Mike Rogers, is running his second campaign for the Senate there after losing by less than 20,000 votes two years ago. The Democratic candidate will be decided in an August primary. This is a true tossup that could take away a Democratic seat.
民主党可能需要担心密歇根州的一个席位。共和党候选人、前众议员迈克·罗杰斯，在两年前以不到两万票的劣势输掉之后，正在那里进行第二次参议院竞选。民主党候选人将在八月的初选中确定。这是一个真正的悬案，可能会让民主党失去一个席位。
Republicans can afford to lose four seats and still keep control of the Senate with the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance.
共和党即使失去四个席位，凭借副总统JD·万斯（JD Vance）的决定性一票，仍然可以保持对参议院的控制权。
What does this mean for 2027 and beyond?
这对2027年及以后意味着什么？
There is a stark difference between Democrats winning just the House versus the entire Congress.
民主党仅赢得下议院与赢得整个国会之间存在巨大差异。
If Democrats take control of the House, they will put a check on Trump through greater oversight and investigations of his actions. He may well be impeached – for a remarkable third time. This is exactly what happened to Trump after the Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterm elections.
如果民主党控制了下议院，他们将通过对特朗普行为的更严格监督和调查来制约他。他很可能会再次被弹劾——这是令人瞩目的第三次。这正是2018年中期选举中民主党赢得下议院后发生的事情。
If Democrats are in charge of both chambers, however, they will be able to pass bill after bill that Trump will likely veto. This would further weaken Trump’s political strength – as well as the Republicans – in advance of the 2028 presidential and congressional elections.
然而，如果民主党同时控制了两个院系，他们将能够通过接二连三的法案，而这些法案很可能会遭到特朗普否决。这将进一步削弱特朗普的政治实力——以及共和党——在2028年总统和国会选举之前。
Under either scenario, Trump’s legislative agenda will be dead.
无论哪种情况，特朗普的立法议程都将胎死腹中。
After two years of acquiescing to the president by the Republican-held Congress, the midterms will offer a chance to shift the balance of power. If Democrats win the House, Congress will gain a voice again. And the guardrails that have been missing for two years will again be in place to safeguard American democracy.
在共和党控制的国会接受总统两年顺从之后，中期选举将提供一个改变权力平衡的机会。如果民主党赢得下议院，国会将重新获得发言权。而两年以来缺失的保障措施将再次到位，以维护美国民主。
Correction: This piece has been updated to correct that George W. Bush was president in 2002, not his father, George H.W. Bush.
更正：本文已更新，更正了乔治·W·布什于2002年时担任总统，而非其父乔治·H·W·布什。
Bruce Wolpe is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney and is author of two books on Trump and Australia. He served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress in President Obama’s first term. He has contributed to Democratic candidates for elected office.
布鲁斯·沃尔普是悉尼大学美国研究中心的一名非常驻高级研究员，也是关于特朗普和澳大利亚撰写了两本书的作者。他在奥巴马总统第一任期时曾在美国国会民主党工作人员处任职。他曾为民主党候选人参与选举工作。
