أوكرانيا تُقَابِل تأثير الحرب في إيران بمهاجمة منشآت الطاقة الروسية

Many analysts feared the war in Iran waged by the United States and Israel would have disastrous consequences for Ukraine.

A range of issues resulting from the conflict have in fact hurt Ukraine. But the biggest consequence of the war, both globally and for Ukraine, has been its impact on oil.

Money, and the economy more broadly, are known as the sinews of war. In Russia, oil revenues are the sinews that power the Russian economy and the country’s military more broadly.

The war in the Middle East, as expected, disrupted global oil supplies and caused a significant uptick in the price of oil. The U.S. lifted restrictions on countries like India that buy Russian oil to alleviate pressure on key allies. In many respects, this chain of events has been the perfect storm to advance Russian interests.

Ukraine fights back

But even though shifting international attention is to Ukraine’s disadvantage, a key aspect of warfare is that all participants generally play a role in its outcome.

Ukraine, rather than idling, has increased its targeting of Russia’s energy infrastructure during the war in Iran.

Ukrainian officials, in fact, were quite explicit about this approach after Donald Trump once again lifted sanctions on Russian oil, striking Russian oil refineries within hours of the president’s announcement.

The Ukrainian attacks have prevented Russia from effectively exploiting higher oil prices — and its own war effort in Ukraine is facing a sustained challenge as well.

Surviving the winter

Both Russia and Ukraine have long sought to undermine the each other by attacking infrastructure. Russia, in particular, has become noteworthy for attacking civilian infrastructure in an effort to break the will of the Ukrainian people.

The winter typically marks an escalation in this Russian strategy; this past winter was no exception. The cold weather, combined with declining U.S. support for Ukraine, meant Russia’s infrastructure attacks were particularly devastating.

But the damage has given Ukraine an opportunity, allowing it to determine what attacks create the biggest challenges for its repair and reconstruction teams.

These lessons are now being weaponized against Russia. After determining what Russian attacks most damaged its own energy infrastructure, Ukraine is returning the favour via its strikes on Russia.

Ukrainian innovations

The Russia-Ukraine war has exposed numerous innovations and developments in terms of war-fighting technology — especially drones.

Both Ukraine and Russia have improved drone technology, but Ukraine is at the forefront of drone technology development — so much so western countries like the United Kingdom and Germany are approaching Ukraine’s government to acquire it.

Tech evangelists have oversold the efficacy of drones in direct combat operations. But Ukraine has developed drone technology to make up for shortages of artillery ammunition.

Drones may have limited impact at the battlefront due to drone countermeasures, but their long range makes them highly effective against softer targets — like Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Ukrainian response

Just as Ukraine began to increased its attacks against Russian oil infrastructure, the U.S. and Israel launched their war in Iran. The lessons Ukraine has learned from Russia’s strikes on its own energy infrastructure over the years suddenly became all the more critical.

The rising price of oil, as well as an absence of international attention because of the Middle East conflict, created a scenario that many feared would provide Russia with a free hand in Ukraine.

Russia, after all, already possesses significant material advantages over Ukraine. But it faces a major challenge: the morale of both Ukrainians and Russians.

For the Ukrainians, the war against Russia is existential. In Russia’s case, despite Putin’s efforts to label the war a necessity, it’s more a threat to his government than to the Russian people.

The importance of the economy

The health of a nation’s economy is critical to the success of any country at war. For Russia, the economy is even more vital because of the Ukraine war’s aforementioned weakness in purpose. With a strong economy, the Russian government is better able to sell the war both abroad and domestically.

Putin has tried to offset the cost of the war on the Russian people by outsourcing the conflict, including using Iranian drones and North Korean soldiers.

Russia has also recruited soldiers globally with the promise of wealth, particularly from the Global South.

This type of outsourcing minimizes the direct impact on the Russian people. But it also requires money.

Impact of Ukrainian attacks

Ukraine has proven remarkably effective at targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. Using cheap drones, as well as domestically developed missiles, Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy is bearing fruit.

Ukrainian strikes initially reached a scale where more than 40 per cent of Russia’s oil industry was disrupted. This took place as Russia’s budget deficit had already exceeded its forecast for 2026.

Ukraine’s strikes have been so successful that allied countries have requested Ukrainians roll them back due to the ongoing war in Iran. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, has rejected such appeals.

Ukraine needs outside support to keep fighting, but international backing has not proven decisive. Continuing to undermine the Russian economy, however, has the potential to yield decisive results.

James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.