美国、以色列和伊朗之间的战争正走向冻结冲突的3个原因
3 reasons the war between the US, Israel and Iran is he…
Much like the frozen conflicts between India and Pakistan or North and South Korea, this will keep the entire world on edge.
就像印度和巴基斯坦，或朝鲜和韩国之间的冻结冲突一样，这将让全世界保持高度紧张。
With a shaky ceasefire in place between the US, Israel and Iran – and little progress on talks to resolve the complex issues at the heart of the war – where is this conflict going?
在美国、以色列和伊朗之间停火协议摇摇欲坠，而解决战争核心复杂问题的谈判进展甚微的情况下，这场冲突将走向何方？
The most likely scenario is a frozen conflict.
最有可能的场景是冲突陷入“冻结”状态。
A frozen conflict is not static, but is an unresolved war that continues at a low-level below the threshold of full-scale combat.
“冻结冲突”并非静止不动，而是一场未解决的战争，其持续的低烈度冲突低于全面作战的门槛。
This typically occurs when a comprehensive political agreement cannot be reached, such as the fighting in eastern Ukraine from 2014 until Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. This conflict was considered frozen despite the deaths of some 14,000 military personnel and civilians and persistent cyber and information warfare.
这通常发生在无法达成全面政治协议的情况下，例如2014年至俄罗斯于2022年全面入侵期间乌克兰东部的战事。尽管有约14,000名军人和平民死亡，以及持续的网络和信息战，这场冲突仍被认为是“冻结”的。
Even if negotiations resume this week in Pakistan and an eventual agreement is reached, there are still three reasons we believe this is headed towards a frozen conflict, not a comprehensive peace agreement.
即使本周巴基斯坦的谈判恢复，并最终达成协议，我们仍然认为有三个原因表明，这更倾向于走向“冻结冲突”，而非全面的和平协议。
1) Trump equates ceasefires with an end to war
1) 特朗普将停火等同于战争结束
US President Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy has shown he does not treat ceasefires as pauses for negotiations to agree on substantive political issues. Rather, he declares a ceasefire as a US success, then moves on to the next global issue.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的外交政策表明，他并不将停火视为为就实质性政治问题进行谈判的暂停。相反，他将停火宣布为美国的成功，然后转向下一个全球议题。
Trump claims to have ended ten wars, including the current conflict with Iran and Israel’s war in Lebanon. A closer look reveals that in most of these conflicts, a shaky ceasefire has held while substantive issues remain unresolved.
特朗普声称结束了十场战争，包括与伊朗的当前冲突以及以色列在黎巴嫩的战争。仔细观察发现，在这些冲突中，大多数停火只是勉强维持，而实质性问题仍未解决。
This has left frozen conflicts in place with ongoing tensions. In India and Pakistan, which engaged in a brief armed conflict last year, for example, there is a continued risk of renewed hostilities. And a lasting peace between Thailand and Cambodia after last year’s border spats remains elusive.
这使得一些冲突处于僵局，持续存在紧张局势。例如，印度和巴基斯坦去年曾发生过短暂的武装冲突，目前仍存在重新爆发敌对的风险。而泰国和柬埔寨在去年边境摩擦之后，持久的和平仍遥不可及。
Yet, Trump has walked away from these conflicts and claimed an end to war as soon as a cessation of major hostilities was in place.
然而，特朗普却在主要敌对行为停止后，就脱离了这些冲突，并宣布战争结束。
2) Asymmetric wars are difficult to resolve
2) 非对称战争难以解决
The current war is asymmetric because of the huge difference in military strength between the US and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other.
当前的战争是非对称的，因为美国和以色列一方与伊朗一方在军事实力上存在巨大差异。
Iran has intentionally used asymmetric tactics to counter the US’ overwhelming military power, including targeting infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries not involved in the war and closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping traffic to disrupt the global economy.
伊朗故意使用非对称战术来对抗美国压倒性的军事力量，包括攻击未参与战争的波斯湾国家的基础设施，以及关闭霍尔木兹海峡的商业航运，以扰乱全球经济。
Research shows asymmetric wars are inherently protracted and often open-ended. As a result, they are more likely to end in a frozen conflict than an enduring political settlement.
研究表明，非对称战争本质上是旷日持久且往往没有明确终点的。因此，它们更有可能以僵局冲突告终，而非持久的政治和解。
The reason for this is simple. The weaker actor cannot win a conventional military battle against the stronger actor. So, it tries to exhaust the more powerful nation with political, economic and psychological pressure, forcing a withdrawal and cessation of hostilities.
原因很简单。较弱的行为体无法在常规军事战中战胜较强的行为体。因此，它试图用政治、经济和心理压力耗尽更强大的国家，迫使其撤退并停止敌对行动。
This is what we are seeing now between the US and Iran. Trump is feeling these rising pressures and is pursuing a ceasefire, while trying to claim a US victory.
这就是我们目前在美国和伊朗之间所看到的。特朗普感受到了这些日益增加的压力，正在寻求停火，同时试图宣称美国取得了胜利。
Iran, meanwhile, has agreed to a ceasefire in a bid for survival as the weaker actor, rather than a commitment to an enduring end to the conflict.
与此同时，伊朗作为较弱的行为体，同意停火，其目的是为了生存，而非致力于实现冲突的持久终结。
This is reminiscent of the Taliban in Afghanistan, who survived 20 years in a frozen conflict with the US before taking back control of the country when the US withdrew.
这让人联想到阿富汗的塔利班，他们在与美国进行僵局冲突的20年里幸存下来，直到美国撤军后才重新夺回了国家的控制权。
3) There’s been no focus on the more complex issues
3) 缺乏对更复杂问题的关注
Neither the US nor Iran appears committed to any long-term resolution of the underlying tensions at the root of the conflict. Key among these is the question of Iran’s nuclear program.
美国和伊朗似乎都没有致力于解决冲突根源地带的任何长期紧张局势。其中关键的问题是伊朗的核计划。
For Washington, the first round of peace talks in Pakistan on April 11–12 were aborted because Iran refused to compromise on its nuclear program. And Iran has long argued it has an inalienable right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
对华盛顿而言，在巴基斯坦于4月11日至12日举行的第一轮和平谈判，因伊朗拒绝在核计划上做出让步而中止。伊朗长期以来一直辩称，它有权为民用目的浓缩铀。
The negotiations that led to the multilateral 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear program – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – took 20 months to conclude. Trump withdrew from the agreement three years later, calling it a “horrible one-sided deal”.
促成2015年伊朗核计划多边协议——《联合全面行动计划》的谈判历时20个月。三年后，特朗普退出该协议，称其为“可怕的单方面协议”。
Given this history, a quick and clear resolution to this complex dispute is unlikely.
鉴于这一历史，解决这一复杂争端快速且明确的可能性不大。
Some analysts believe the US and Iran could announce a partial agreement that would leave many of the technical aspects to be ironed out later.
一些分析人士认为，美伊双方可能会宣布一项部分协议，而将许多技术细节留待日后解决。
But Trump is now facing an opponent that is unlikely to become more accommodating with respect to its long-term “ nuclear rights ”. In fact, Iran has already shown its resolve by asserting a new geostrategic normal, closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the global economy.
但特朗普现在面对的对手，不太可能在长期“核权利”方面变得更加顺从。事实上，伊朗已经通过宣称新的地缘战略常态，关闭霍尔木兹海峡并扰乱全球经济，展现了其决心。
What a frozen conflict means for the region
什么是冻结冲突对该地区意味着什么
The Iran-US war may conclude with a series of ceasefires, but will likely remain a frozen conflict due to these underlying tensions. This means more threats from both sides over Iran’s nuclear program and periodic flare-ups of violence between Israel and Iran, the US and Iran, or both.
伊朗与美国的战争可能会以一系列停火协议告终，但由于这些潜在的紧张局势，它很可能会成为一场冻结冲突。这意味着双方将继续对伊朗的核计划提出更多威胁，并且以色列和伊朗、美国和伊朗之间，或两者之间，会周期性地爆发暴力冲突。
This is much like the frozen situation in Gaza. Last October, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire under Trump’s 20-point peace plan. The first phase of the plan was then largely implemented, leading to a hostage-prisoner exchange, a decrease in Israel’s heavy bombardments of Gaza and a resumption of aid into the strip.
这非常类似于加沙的冻结局势。去年十月，以色列和哈马斯同意根据特朗普的20点和平计划停火。该计划的第一阶段随后在很大程度上得到了实施，促成了人质和囚犯的交换，减少了以色列对加沙的重度轰炸，并恢复了援助进入该地带。
However, there has since been no progress on the more complex questions of the post-war governance of Gaza, redevelopment of the strip and – crucially – the disarmament of Hamas fighters. As a result, Israel has refused to completely withdraw its troops and violence has continued.
然而，自那时起，关于加沙战后治理、该地带重建以及——至关重要的是——哈马斯武装人员解除武装等更复杂的议题，一直没有取得进展。因此，以色列拒绝完全撤军，暴力冲突持续存在。
From a historical perspective, the frozen conflict in the Koreas is also instructive. The war ended with an armistice in 1953 and no peace treaty, effectively leaving North and South Korea at war to this day. This led to the North developing an underground nuclear weapons program that continues to pose a threat to the world.
从历史角度来看，朝鲜半岛的冻结冲突也具有启发意义。战争于1953年以停战协定告终，而非和平条约，实际上使朝鲜南北至今处于战争状态。这导致北方发展了地下核武器计划，持续对世界构成威胁。
Similarly, the decades-long frozen India-Pakistan conflict has led to an arms race (including the development of nuclear weapons on both sides), instability in South Asia and periodic flare-ups of violence.
类似地，旷日持久的印巴冻结冲突导致了军备竞赛（包括双方发展核武器），南亚的不稳定，以及周期性的暴力爆发。
A frozen conflict between the US, Israel and Iran will no doubt create similar long-term instability in the Middle East, including a possible arms race in the Middle East and more flare-ups of violence, particularly around control of the Strait of Hormuz.
美国、以色列和伊朗之间的冻结冲突无疑将在中东造成类似的长期不稳定，包括可能在中东爆发军备竞赛和更多暴力冲突，特别是在霍尔木兹海峡的控制权问题上。
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
作者不为任何公司或组织工作，不为其提供咨询，不持有其股份，也不接受其资金，且已披露了超出其学术任职的任何相关隶属关系。
