石油的终结？随着燃料冲击的连锁反应，53个国家齐聚一堂规划淘汰化石燃料
The end of oil? As fuel shocks cascade, 53 nations gath…
Frustrations at slow global climate talks has led more than 50 nations to begin plans to phase out fossil fuels – even as oil shocks raise the stakes.
对全球气候谈判进展缓慢的不满，已促使超过50个国家开始制定淘汰化石燃料的计划——即使在石油冲击提高风险的背景下。
US President Donald Trump is a longtime climate denier and oil industry ally, who sums up his own energy policy as “drill, baby, drill”. Yet he is doing more than almost anyone to speed up the global shift from fossil fuels to clean energy and electric vehicles (EVs).
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普长期以来一直是气候否认者和石油行业的盟友，他将自己的能源政策总结为“钻探，宝贝，钻探”。然而，他正在做的事情，比几乎任何人都多，以加速全球从化石燃料向清洁能源和电动汽车（EVs）的转变。
After the US and Israel struck Iran in late February, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz and triggered the largest disruption of oil supply in history.
在美国和以色列于二月下旬袭击伊朗之后，德黑兰关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，引发了历史上最大的石油供应中断。
Ironically for Trump and his oil industry donors, this crisis may be an irreversible tipping point for clean energy. For years, fossil fuel advocates spruiked oil, gas and coal as “reliable” energy. That narrative has been reversed. Fossil fuels have become expensive and unreliable, while renewables are cheap, reliable and secure.
对特朗普和他的石油行业捐助者来说，这具有讽刺意味，这场危机可能是清洁能源不可逆转的转折点。多年来，化石燃料倡导者将石油、天然气和煤炭宣传为“可靠”的能源。这一叙事已经逆转。化石燃料变得昂贵且不可靠，而可再生能源则廉价、可靠且安全。
For the first time ever, more than 50 nations will gather next week in Colombia to hash out how to wind down and end their dependence on coal, oil and gas. The history-making conference was planned before the Iran war. But this year’s energy crisis has greatly raised the stakes.
史上首次，来自50多个国家将于下周在哥伦比亚聚集，商讨如何逐步减少并结束对煤炭、石油和天然气的依赖。这次具有里程碑意义的会议原定在伊朗战争之前举行。但今年的能源危机极大地提高了赌注。
The oil crisis is real
石油危机是真实的
Iran’s closure of the narrow Strait of Hormuz stopped oil tankers reaching their destinations. But that wasn’t all. More than 60 gas and oil sites have been damaged in the conflict so far. Even if a durable ceasefire is reached, these impacts will reverberate for months and years to come.
伊朗关闭狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡，阻止了油轮到达目的地。但这还不是全部。到目前为止，冲突已经破坏了60多个天然气和石油设施。即使达成持久停火，这些影响仍将持续数月乃至数年。
Around 80% of the trapped crude oil was destined for the Asia-Pacific. Faced with dwindling supply, the region’s governments are implementing emergency measures such as sending workers home, banning government travel, rationing fuel and cutting school hours.
大约80%的被困原油原本运往亚太地区。面对供应减少，该地区的各国政府正在实施紧急措施，例如遣散工人、禁止政府出行、配给燃料和缩短上学时间。
The problem is especially bad in the Pacific. Many island nations use diesel for power generation. In response, leaders declared a regional emergency.
太平洋地区的问题尤为严重。许多岛国使用柴油发电。作为回应，各国领导人宣布了区域紧急状态。
Fuel import bills were already a major burden for Pacific nations, leading to efforts to switch to local renewables. Fuel bills could rise by A$933 million in Fiji (nearly three times the healthcare budget).
燃料进口账单本身就是太平洋国家的主要负担，促使它们努力转向本地可再生能源。斐济的燃料账单可能会增加9.33亿澳元（几乎是医疗预算的三倍）。
Scrambling for energy
争夺能源
When energy supplies are disrupted, leaders have three options: find alternate supplies, reduce use or switch to alternatives. In the very short term, countries aim to shore up supply, just as Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did last week in Malaysia.
当能源供应中断时，领导人有三个选择：寻找替代供应、减少使用或转向替代能源。在极短时间内，各国都致力于稳定供应，就像澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯上周在马来西亚所做的那样。
Countries have also moved to reduce use. This can have lasting effects. During the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s, oil prices tripled and then doubled again. Authorities responded by improving energy productivity to do more with less. The world’s final oil demand per capita peaked in 1979 and has never recovered.
各国也开始减少使用。这可能会产生持久的影响。在20世纪70年代的中东石油危机期间，油价暴涨了三倍，随后又翻了一番。当局通过提高能源生产率来应对，力求用更少的资源做更多的事。世界人均石油需求在1979年达到顶峰，此后从未恢复。
But the real difference from half a century ago is that fossil fuel alternatives are ready for prime time. Since the 1970s, the price of solar panels has fallen 99.9%, while the cost of wind has fallen 91% since 1984. Battery prices have fallen 99% since 1991.
但与半个世纪前最大的不同是，化石燃料替代品已经成熟。自20世纪70年代以来，太阳能电池板的价格下降了99.9%，而风能成本自1984年以来下降了91%。电池价格自1991年以来下降了99%。
This means it’s now viable for many nations to switch to these alternatives.
这意味着现在许多国家都有能力转向这些替代能源。
The European Union will accelerate electrification, after its fossil fuel bill increased more than $36 billion since February. France has doubled state aid to help households switch to EVs and electrify home heating. Import-dependent South Korea gets 70% of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. It now plans to double renewables capacity within four years.
欧盟将加速电气化进程，此前其化石燃料支出自二月以来增加了超过360亿美元。法国已将国家援助翻倍，以帮助家庭转向电动汽车并实现家庭供暖电气化。依赖进口的韩国从霍尔木兹海峡获得70%的原油。目前，韩国计划在四年内将可再生能源容量增加一倍。
Electric vehicles at the tipping point?
电动汽车是否已达临界点？
This year’s oil shock shows signs of creating an unplanned social tipping point – a threshold for self-propelling change beyond which systems shift from one state to another. Climate scientists warn of climate tipping points which amplify feedback and accelerate warming. But social scientists also point to positive tipping points – collective action that rapidly accelerates climate action.
今年的石油冲击显示出正在形成一个非计划的社会临界点——一个自发推动变化的阈值，一旦越过，系统就会从一种状态转变为另一种状态。气候科学家警告说，气候临界点会放大反馈效应并加速变暖。但社会科学家也指出了积极的临界点——即能迅速加速气候行动的集体行动。
The rush to EVs is a case in point. In Australia, petrol prices surged almost 50% in March, and diesel more than 70%. It’s no surprise new EV sales are at an all-time high, while secondhand EV sales more than doubled last month.
抢购电动汽车就是一个例证。在澳大利亚，3月份汽油价格飙升了近50%，柴油价格飙升了超过70%。因此，新电动汽车销量创下历史新高，而二手电动汽车销量上个月更是翻了一番，这并不奇怪。
Australia’s 1.3 million hybrid and battery electric vehicles avoid almost 15 million litres of petrol and diesel use every week.
澳大利亚的130万辆混合动力和纯电动汽车，每周可节省近1500万升汽油和柴油的使用量。
The rush to electric transport is global. Most new Chinese cars are powered by batteries, not oil. Battery electric vehicles outsold petrol cars for the first time in Europe in January.
对电动交通的追捧是全球性的。大多数新的中国汽车由电池供电，而非石油。电动汽车在今年1月首次在欧洲销量超过了汽油车。
A conference to quit fossil fuels
一场退出化石燃料的会议
The routine burning of coal, oil and gas is the primary driver of the climate crisis. The world’s highest court last year made clear nations have obligations to stop burning fossil fuels.
煤炭、石油和天然气的常规燃烧是气候危机的主要驱动力。世界最高法院去年明确指出，各国有义务停止燃烧化石燃料。
But fossil fuels have barely been mentioned in 30 years of global climate negotiations, due in part to blocking efforts by big fossil fuel exporters and lobbyists.
但在过去 30 年的全球气候谈判中，化石燃料几乎未被提及，部分原因是大型化石燃料出口国和游说团体的阻挠。
Frustrated by slow progress, a coalition of nations has bypassed global climate talks to discuss how to actually phase out fossil fuels.
由于对进展缓慢感到沮丧，一个国家联盟绕过了全球气候谈判，讨论如何真正淘汰化石燃料。
The first of these summits will take place next week. More than 50 nations will gather in Santa Marta, Colombia, to discuss a potential standalone treaty to manage fossil-fuel phaseout while protecting workers and financial systems.
这些峰会的第一场将于下周举行。来自 50 多个国家的人将聚集在哥伦比亚的圣玛尔塔，讨论一项潜在的独立条约，以管理化石燃料的淘汰过程，同时保护工人和金融系统。
Colombian Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres says it comes at the “ best possible moment ”, as the oil crisis focuses global attention on fossil fuel dependency.
哥伦比亚环境部长伊雷内·维莱斯·托雷斯说，这正是在“最佳时刻”，因为石油危机将全球的注意力集中在了化石燃料依赖性上。
If next week’s summit produces real momentum to wean off fossil fuels amid the energy crisis, we might look back at it as a social tipping point where early adopters move in earnest – and make it easier for the rest of the world to follow.
如果下周的峰会在能源危机背景下产生真正淘汰化石燃料的动力，我们可能会将其视为一个社会临界点，即早期采用者开始认真行动——从而让世界其他地区更容易跟进。
Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia
韦斯利·摩根是澳大利亚气候理事会的研究员
Ben Newell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
本·纽尔获得澳大利亚研究理事会的资助。
