Both sides are claiming success, but it may be Tehran that benefits more from the deal.
双方都在宣称成功，但从这协议中可能更多受益的是德黑兰。
Ceasefires are often presented as moments of relief – pauses in violence that open the door to diplomacy. But sometimes they reveal something more consequential: who has actually gained from the war. The emerging ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran may be one of those moments.
停火经常被描绘成一种喘息时刻——是暴力暂歇，为外交打开了大门。但有时，停火揭示了更深远的意义：这场战争的真正受益者是谁。美国、以色列和伊朗之间正在出现的停火协议，可能就是这样一个时刻。
On the surface, all sides are claiming success. Donald Trump has declared a “total and complete victory”, presenting the agreement as evidence that US objectives have been met. Meanwhile, Iran’s leadership has framed the ceasefire as a strategic achievement, with its Supreme National Security Council formally endorsing the deal on the condition that attacks stop.
表面上看，各方都在宣称自己取得了成功。唐纳德·特朗普宣布了“彻底而完全的胜利”，将该协议呈现为美国目标已实现的证据。与此同时，伊朗领导层则将停火定性为一项战略成就，其最高国家安全委员会正式在要求停止攻击的条件下认可了该协议。
But beneath these competing narratives lies a deeper reality: the content and structure of the ceasefire suggests that Iran may have emerged not weakened, but strengthened. While much of its senior leadership has been assassinated during the conflict, the regime’s ability to rapidly appoint replacements and maintain cohesion points to institutional resilience rather than collapse.
但在这些相互竞争的叙事之下，隐藏着一个更深层的现实：停火的内容和结构表明，伊朗可能并未削弱，反而得到了加强。尽管其高级领导层在冲突期间遭受了大量暗杀，但该政权能够迅速任命替代者并维持凝聚力，这指向的是制度韧性而非崩溃。
The ceasefire was not imposed by decisive military defeat. It was negotiated – and shaped – around Iranian conditions, delivering gains it previously did not have, with Tehran’s ten-point plan serving as a starting framework for negotiations rather than a finalised agreement being imposed on Iran.
停火并非源于决定性的军事失败所强加。它是围绕伊朗的条件进行谈判并塑造的，带来了其此前不具备的收益，德黑兰的“十点计划”充当的是谈判的起始框架，而非强加给伊朗的最终协议。
Tehran’s proposals went beyond ending hostilities. They include sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, reconstruction support and continued influence over the Strait of Hormuz. They also include effective US withdrawal from the Middle East – and an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
德黑兰的提议超越了结束敌对行动的范畴。它们包括解除制裁、获取冻结资产、重建支持，以及在霍尔木兹海峡继续维持影响力。它们还包括美国从中东有效撤军——以及结束以色列对黎巴嫩的攻击。
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil transits, has been reopened under Iranian oversight, a clear signal of where leverage now lies. Control over Hormuz is not just strategic but economic. Iran has reportedly proposed continuing the charging of transit fees it begin during the conflict – creating a potential revenue stream at precisely the moment reconstruction is needed.
霍尔木兹海峡是全球约五分之一石油运输的通道，现在已在伊朗的监督下重新开放，这清晰地表明了当前的筹码所在。控制霍尔木兹不仅是战略性的，更是经济性的。据报道，伊朗提议继续征收其在冲突期间开始征收的过境费——这在亟需重建的时刻创造了一个潜在的收入来源。
In effect, a war that involved sustained bombing of Iranian infrastructure may now leave Iran with new financial mechanisms to rebuild and potentially expand its regional influence.
实际上，一场涉及持续轰炸伊朗基础设施的战争，现在可能反而让伊朗获得了新的金融机制来重建，并可能扩大其区域影响力。
The logic is paradoxical but familiar. Military campaigns are designed to degrade an opponent’s capabilities. But when they fail to produce decisive political outcomes, they often create new opportunities for the targeted state. Iran entered this war already adapted to pressure. Years of sanctions had forced it to build resilience by diversifying networks, strengthening institutions and developing asymmetric strategies.
其逻辑是矛盾的，但却耳熟能详。军事行动旨在削弱对手的能力。但当它们未能产生决定性的政治成果时，往往会为目标国家创造新的机会。伊朗进入这场战争时，已经适应了压力。多年的制裁迫使它通过多元化网络、加强制度和发展非对称战略来建立韧性。
What the war appears to have done is accelerate that process. Rather than collapsing, Iran has demonstrated its ability to disrupt global energy markets, absorb sustained strikes and force negotiations on terms that include economic concessions.
这场战争所做出的，似乎是加速了这一过程。伊朗没有崩溃，而是展示了其瓦解全球能源市场、吸收持续打击，并在包含经济让步的条款下推动谈判的能力。
Illusion of victory
胜利的幻觉
This is where the dissonance in US messaging becomes most visible. The US president may have framed the ceasefire as a “complete victory” but, tellingly, while the ceasefire deal will involve the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been the US president’s main demand in recent days, talks will centre on Iran’s ten-point plan rather than the original US 15-point plan, which centred on dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.
这是美国信息传递中不一致性最明显的地方。美国总统可能将停火定性为“彻底胜利”，但值得注意的是，尽管停火协议将涉及暂时重新开放霍尔木兹海峡——这是美国总统近几天来的主要要求——但谈判的焦点将是伊朗的十点计划，而非最初以瓦解伊朗核武和导弹能力为核心的美国十五点计划。
The shift suggests an American search for an off-ramp. At the same time, Iran has maintained a consistent position: rejecting temporary arrangements unless they deliver structural outcomes such as sanctions relief and security guarantees.
这一转变表明美国正在寻找一个退路。与此同时，伊朗一直保持着一致的立场：除非临时安排能带来制裁减免和安全保障等结构性成果，否则否则拒绝接受。
For Washington the ceasefire halts escalation and stabilises markets. For Tehran, it aims to consolidate the leverage offered by its control of the Strait of Hormuz. This asymmetry suggests the ceasefire is not a neutral pause, but a moment that could lock in a shift in regional power.
对华盛顿而言，停火能阻止事态升级并稳定市场。而对德黑兰而言，其目的是巩固通过控制霍尔木兹海峡所获得的筹码。这种不对称性表明，停火并非一次中立的暂停，而是一个可能锁定区域权力转移的时刻。
The most decisive dimension of this shift is economic. The war has destabilised global markets – with oil prices fluctuating sharply in response to disruptions of supply. But the ceasefire introduces a new dynamic. If sanctions are eased, Iran gains access to global markets at a time of sustained energy demand. Combined with potential transit revenues and reconstruction flows, this creates the conditions for a significant economic rebound.
这一转变中最决定性的维度是经济。战争已经使全球市场不稳定——石油价格因供应中断而剧烈波动。但停火引入了新的动态。如果制裁放宽，伊朗将在能源需求持续的时期重新获得全球市场准入。结合潜在的过境收入和重建资金，这为经济实现显著反弹创造了条件。
In effect, the war risks producing the opposite of its intended outcome. Rather than weakening Iran economically, it may instead have strengthened it.
事实上，这场战争反而可能产生了与预期相反的结果。它非但没有削弱伊朗的经济，反而可能使其更加强大。
A stronger Iran, a weaker order?
更强大的伊朗，一个更脆弱的秩序？
This raises a larger question: what does this ceasefire reveal about power itself? For decades, US influence in the Middle East has rested on military dominance and economic pressure. This conflict suggests both are under strain.
这提出了一个更大的问题：这场停火揭示了关于权力本身的哪些信息？几十年来，美国在中东的影响力一直建立在军事主导地位和经济压力之上。这场冲突表明，这两者都承受着巨大的压力。
Militarily, the US and Israel have demonstrated overwhelming capability, yet without decisive outcomes. Iran has retained its core capacities, maintained cohesion and leveraged its position to shape deescalation.
在军事上，美伊两国展示了压倒性的能力，但缺乏决定性的成果。伊朗保留了其核心能力，保持了凝聚力，并利用其地位来塑造降级进程。
At the same time, US and Israeli legitimacy has eroded. The war’s contested justification, civilian toll and lack of broad international support have weakened their standing, even among allies. American soft power – long central to its global leadership – is diminished. Trump’s increasingly abusive social media posts have certainly alienated even its closest allies, most of whom stayed silent in face of US threats.
与此同时，美国和以色列的合法性正在侵蚀。这场战争存在争议的理由、平民伤亡以及缺乏广泛的国际支持，削弱了它们，甚至在盟友中也如此。美国软实力——长期以来一直是其全球领导力的核心——正在减弱。特朗普日益恶劣的社交媒体帖子无疑疏远了甚至其最亲密的盟友，而大多数盟友在面对美国威胁时保持了沉默。
Economically, Iran’s ability to influence – and potentially monetise – global energy flows gives it a form of structural power that force alone cannot neutralise. The result is a paradox: a war intended to contain Iran may have reinforced its strength.
在经济上，伊朗影响——并可能将……全球能源流货币化的能力，赋予了它一种仅凭武力无法抵消的结构性力量。结果是一个悖论：一场旨在遏制伊朗的战争，反而可能增强了它的实力。
It is still early. Ceasefires can collapse, negotiations can fail, and conflicts can reignite. But if this agreement holds – even temporarily – it may mark a turning point. Not because it ends the war, but because of what it reveals about how wars are now won and lost. Victory is no longer defined by battlefield dominance alone, but by outcomes that are economically sustainable, politically legitimate and strategically durable.
现在还为时过早。停火可能会崩溃，谈判可能会失败，冲突可能会重新燃起。但如果协议能够维持——即使是暂时——它可能标志着一个转折点。这并非因为它结束了战争，而是因为它揭示了现代战争是如何赢得和失去的。胜利不再仅仅由战场上的主导地位决定，而是由在经济上可持续、政治上合法和战略上持久的成果来决定。
On those measures, Iran appears well positioned. The US and Israel may have demonstrated military superiority. But Iran has demonstrated something different: the ability to endure, adapt and convert pressure into leverage.
从这些衡量标准来看，伊朗似乎处于有利地位。美国和以色列可能展示了军事上的优越性。但伊朗展示了不同的东西：忍耐、适应并将压力转化为杠杆的能力。
That’s why this ceasefire matters; not just as an end to a phase of conflict, but marking the moment when a war intended to weaken Iran instead left it stronger – and exposed the limits of the power that sought to contain it.
这就是这场停火重要的原因；它不仅标志着冲突阶段的结束，更标志着一场旨在削弱伊朗的战争，反而使其更强大——并暴露了试图遏制它的力量的局限性。
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
作者不为任何可能从本文中受益的公司或组织工作、提供咨询、持有股份或接受资金，并且除了其学术任命外，未披露任何相关的隶属关系。
