欧洲正在经历创纪录的热浪。是什么让它如此严重？
Europe is battling a record-breaking heatwave. What’s m…
A climate expert unpacks the potential causes and risks of extreme heat.
一位气候专家深入分析了极端高温的潜在原因和风险。
Sweltering temperatures are shattering records across Europe, as the continent battles a deadly heatwave.
欧洲各地正经历酷热，打破了记录，整个大陆正在与致命的热浪作斗争。
On Tuesday and Wednesday, France endured its hottest days in history, with western regions reaching highs of between 39°C and 43°C. Wednesday was the United Kingdom’s warmest June day on record, with the mercury climbing to 36.1°C. And according to early data, Spain, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Switzerland have all broken June temperature records at several sites. And the event is not over yet.
周二和周三，法国经历了有史以来最热的日子，西部地区气温达到39°C至43°C之间。周三是英国有记录以来最热的六月日，气温攀升至36.1°C。根据初步数据，西班牙、德国、奥地利、荷兰和瑞士在多个地点都打破了六月气温记录。而且这场热浪尚未结束。
Tragically, lives have already been lost, including dozens of people who have drowned in France in the past week, while trying to cool down in the punishing heat.
令人痛心的是，生命已经逝去，其中包括过去一周在法国因试图躲避酷热而溺亡的数十人。
But this historic heatwave is not happening in isolation. It comes days after the global sea surface temperature again reached record levels. Meanwhile, Australia’s weather bureau has declared El Niño active, making a hotter, drier year in Australia, Asia and the South Pacific much more likely. And since April, India and Pakistan have been battling a sustained and ultimately deadly heatwave.
但这次历史性的热浪并非孤立事件。它发生在全球海表温度再次达到历史记录水平几天之后。同时，澳大利亚气象局宣布厄尔尼诺现象活跃，这使得澳大利亚、亚洲和南太平洋出现更热、更干燥的一年可能性大大增加。此外，自四月以来，印度和巴基斯坦一直在经历持续且最终致命的热浪。
So what’s driving this latest heatwave? And why is it so severe?
那么，这次热浪的驱动因素是什么？为什么它如此严重？
An unusual heatwave
一场异常的热浪
A heatwave occurs when the average temperature is unusually hot for three or more days in a row. That’s compared to past weather data taken from the same location.
热浪是指平均气温连续三天或更长时间处于异常高温状态。这里的“异常”是与该地点过去的天气数据进行比较的。
But scientists are losing sleep over the current European heatwave, for two main reasons.
但科学家们对当前的欧洲热浪感到担忧，原因有二。
1. Timing
1. 时间点
In Europe, the hottest time of year comes in mid- to late July, about a month after the summer solstice. However, recent research suggests days of intense heat stress are now starting to arrive in June. Since 1950, only one other major heatwave has arrived earlier than the current heatwave, which is unfolding weeks before the peak of the European summer.
在欧洲，一年中最热的时段通常出现在七月中下旬，大约是在夏至后一个月左右。然而，最近的研究表明，剧烈高温的日子现在开始出现在六月。自1950年以来，只有另一次主要热浪比当前的热浪来得更早，而这次热浪正在欧洲夏季高峰期前几周发生。
Current evidence shows climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and intense. One study examined the heatwave that hit southeast England in June 2025. It found that without the effect of human-made greenhouse gas emissions, such a heatwave would only happen once every 50 years. But when the researchers accounted for the temperature increase of 1.3°C caused by human-induced climate change, this became at least once every five years.
目前的证据显示，气候变化正使得热浪变得更频繁、更强烈。一项研究考察了2025年6月袭击英格兰东南部的热浪。该研究发现，如果没有人为温室气体排放的影响，这样的热浪每50年才会发生一次。但当研究人员考虑到人类活动引起的1.3°C的温度升高时，这个周期缩短到了至少五年一次。
2. Severity
2. 强度
In a world without climate change, this extreme heatwave would rarely if ever happen so early in the year. And it also would not be toppling temperature records, and by such staggering amounts.
在一个没有气候变化的世界里，这种极端热浪很少甚至不会在年初这么早发生。它也不会打破温度记录，更不可能达到如此惊人的程度。
Tuesday and Wednesday were France’s hottest days since records began in 1947, with an average temperature of 29.9°C across the country. On Tuesday, 147 French towns hit all-time highs for June, with 41 local weather stations recording figures above 43°C.
周二和周三是法国自1947年记录开始以来最热的两天，全国平均气温为29.9°C。周二，法国有147个城镇创下了六月历史最高温，其中41个地方气象站记录的温度超过了43°C。
France also slept through its warmest night ever from Tuesday into Wednesday, with a national average temperature of 21.6°C. The overnight heat was enough to make some rivers so warm they could not be safely used to cool nuclear power plants.
法国还经历了有史以来最温暖的一夜，从周二到周三，全国平均气温为21.6°C。夜间的高温足以使一些河流变得太热，无法安全用于冷却核电站。
In the same week, Spain also set multiple daytime and nighttime records, with one location enduring three consecutive nights of 30°C or above. Parts of Spain have seen temperatures surpass 45°C.
在同一周，西班牙也创下了多个白天和夜晚的记录，其中一个地点连续经历了三个以上30°C的夜晚。西班牙部分地区的气温甚至超过了45°C。
In western Europe, the heatwave is expected to peak in the middle of this week before shifting east, with forecasts suggesting Poland and Germany will bear the brunt over the weekend.
预计本周欧洲西部将经历热浪达到顶峰，随后向东转移，根据预测，波兰和德国将在周末承受最大的影响。
What caused it?
造成的原因是什么？
At the local scale, heatwaves occur when a high-pressure system settles over a region. These systems act as “lids” that trap heat and push it closer to the surface. They also disperse clouds to allow more sunlight to stream in.
在局部尺度上，热浪的发生是高压系统笼罩某一区域时出现的。这些系统充当了“盖子”，困住热量并将其推向地表。它们还会消散云层，让更多的阳光射入。
On a broader scale, climate change from the burning of oil, coal and gas is reshaping how and when heatwaves form. This is because the additional heat trapped in the atmosphere also changes large-scale weather patterns, which typically move east to west, allowing more slow-moving high-pressure systems to form. This in turn increases the risk of heatwaves.
在更广的尺度上，燃烧石油、煤炭和天然气导致的（气候）变化正在改变热浪形成的方式和时间。这是因为大气中额外被困住的热量也改变了大型天气模式，这些模式通常从东西方向移动，使得更多缓慢移动的高压系统得以形成。这反过来增加了热浪的风险。
Research shows in the five decades between 1950 and 1999, Europe endured five intense heatwaves. Between 2000 and 2021, there were 18 such heatwaves. Add to that the extreme heatwaves of 2022, 2023 and 2025, and this figure rises to more than 20 severe heatwaves in just 25 years. So the evidence is clear – European heatwaves are happening far more often.
研究表明，在1950年至1999年这五十年间，欧洲经历了五次剧烈的热浪。而在2000年至2021年期间，则发生了18次此类热浪。再加上2022年、2023年和2025年的极端热浪，这一数字在短短25年内上升到了超过20次严重的热浪。因此，证据确凿——欧洲的热浪发生的频率大大增加了。
How are people coping?
人们是如何应对的？
This heatwave has already tragically claimed dozens of lives in France, where people have drowned.
这波热浪已经在法国造成了数十人悲剧性死亡，许多人溺水身亡。
According to the European Climate Risk Assessment, heatwaves already pose a critical health risk to people across southern Europe. And in coming years, communities in southern and western-central Europe will be most at risk of heat-related illness and death.
根据欧洲气候风险评估，热浪已经对整个南欧的人群构成了严重的健康威胁。而在未来几年，南部和西中部欧洲的社区将面临最大的与高温相关的疾病和死亡风险。
What makes this heatwave so severe is the combination of extreme temperatures and high humidity, which is completely unlike the typical dry summers experienced in southern Australia.
使这次热浪如此严重的是极端高温和高湿度的结合，这与澳大利亚南部典型的干燥夏季截然不同。
Children and the elderly are most at risk of heat-related illness. Their bodies are less able to evaporate sweat and regulate their internal temperature. For these populations, extreme heat coupled with humidity can be life-threatening.
儿童和老年人最容易患上与高温相关的疾病。他们的身体蒸汗和调节体温的能力较弱。对于这些群体来说，极端高温加上湿度可能是致命的。
What about the next southern hemisphere summer?
下一个南半球的夏天会怎样？
Historically, heatwaves in Europe aren’t related to heatwaves in the following southern hemisphere summer.
从历史上看，欧洲的热浪与随后南半球的夏季热浪并无关联。
However, climate change is increasing the risk of extreme heat in any given year. Combine this with the effects of El Niño, and global average temperatures will be at near-record levels for both 2026 and 2027.
然而，气候变化正在提高任何给定年份发生极端高温的风险。将此与厄尔尼诺的影响相结合，2026年和2027年的全球平均气温都将达到接近历史记录的高位。
In our changing climate, the risk of extreme heat – Australia’s deadliest natural hazard – is now a global reality.
在我们不断变化的气候中，极端高温的风险——这是澳大利亚最致命的自然灾害——现在已成为一个全球性的现实。
Andrew B. Watkins is a Climate Councillor with the Climate Council.
Andrew B. Watkins 是气候委员会的一名气候顾问。
