Few Middle Eastern leaders can agree to Trump’s proposal for all Arab and Muslim states to sign the Abraham accords.
很少有中东领导人能同意特朗普要求所有阿拉伯和穆斯林国家签署《亚伯拉罕协议》的提议。
As negotiations to end the Iran war continued on May 25, Donald Trump made a series of phone calls in which he pressed key leaders from the Middle East to join the Abraham accords. Announced in 2020, these accords established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states, beginning with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain.
随着结束伊朗战争的谈判于5月25日继续进行，唐纳德·特朗普进行了一系列电话通话，敦促中东的关键领导人加入《亚伯拉罕协议》。该协议于2020年宣布，建立了以色列与多个阿拉伯国家的外交关系，最初包括阿拉伯联合酋长国（阿联酋）和巴林。
The US president reiterated his proposal in a social media post later that day: “After all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign the Abraham accords.”
美国总统在当天晚些时候的社交媒体帖子中重申了他的提议：“在美国努力将这个非常复杂的拼图拼凑在一起之后，所有这些国家至少应该同时签署《亚伯拉罕协议》。”
Trump’s post suggested that Iran could also join the accords. This really would be something, given that one motivation for signing the accords was to push back against Iranian influence in the region. Sadly for Trump, this is wishful thinking at best.
特朗普的帖子暗示伊朗也可以加入该协议。考虑到签署该协议的一个动机就是抵制伊朗在该地区的影响力，这确实会是件大事。但对于特朗普来说，这充其量只是空想。
Few Middle Eastern leaders can agree to Trump’s proposal. In comments published by Politico on May 26, one unnamed former US diplomat described Trump’s comments as a “poison pill”. They added he had created new “conditions for peace that neither Iran nor the states in question will accept”.
很少有中东领导人能同意特朗普的提议。一位未具名的前美国外交官在5月26日发表的《政治报》（Politico）评论中，将特朗普的言论描述为“毒丸”。他还补充说，特朗普创造了“伊朗和相关国家都不会接受的和平条件”。
In advocating this approach, Trump misreads the vitriol held by many across the Middle East – and beyond – about Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon. The official death toll in Gaza, where Israel has fought a military campaign since 2023, stands at over 70,000 people. A further 170,000 people have been injured amid what many are calling a “genocide”.
在倡导这种做法时，特朗普误读了许多中东地区乃至更广范围的民众对以色列在加沙和黎巴嫩行动的愤怒和怨恨。自2023年以来以色列在加沙进行军事行动，官方死亡人数已超过7万人。在许多人称之为“种族灭绝”的事件中，另有17万人受伤。
In southern Lebanon, Israel has used ground troops and a relentless campaign of air attacks since the beginning of the Iran war in what appears to be an attempt to secure a “buffer zone” against attacks from Hezbollah. More than 3,200 people there have been killed so far, with a further 7,500 injured and millions forced from their homes. This is despite the signing of a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government in April.
在南黎巴嫩，自伊朗战争开始以来，以色列一直使用地面部队和持续的空袭行动，这似乎是为了在真主党（Hezbollah）的攻击面前建立一个“缓冲区”。迄今为止，当地已有超过3200人丧生，另有7500人受伤，数百万民众被迫离开家园。尽管以色列和黎巴嫩政府已于四月签署了停火协议，局势依然如此。
Opposing Trump’s proposal
反对特朗普的提议
The destruction of Gaza angered Bahrain and the UAE, with Manama recalling its ambassador to Israel shortly after the start of the war. But neither country withdrew from the Abraham accords. Instead, trade and security collaboration continued with both taking the stance that working more closely with Israel would be in the best interests of their states.
加沙的破坏激怒了巴林和阿联酋，在战争爆发后不久，马纳吉召回了驻以色列大使。但这两个国家都没有退出《亚伯拉罕协议》。相反，贸易和安全合作仍在继续，两国都表明与以色列更紧密合作符合其国家最佳利益。
Yet Bahrain and the UAE are outliers in the Middle East. Other countries are far less willing, or able, to normalise with Israel. When US officials visited Saudi Arabia in 2024, four years after the signing of the accords, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is said to have told them he feared being killed if he normalised relations with Israel.
然而，巴林和阿联酋是中东地区的异类。其他国家更不愿意或更没有能力与以色列实现正常化。当美国官员于2024年访问沙特阿拉伯时，在协议签署四年后，据称太子穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼告诉他们，他担心如果与以色列正常化关系，自己会被杀。
Though many have argued the Saudi Kingdom was close to normalising relations with Israel before the war in Gaza, this has been largely rejected by Saudi officials. And since the outbreak of the Gaza war, bin Salman and other Saudi officials have repeatedly stressed that normalisation of diplomatic relations with Israel will not happen without irrevocable steps being taken towards Palestinian statehood.
尽管许多人认为沙特王国在加沙战争前接近与以色列正常化关系，但沙特官员对此大多持否定态度。自加沙战争爆发以来，本·萨尔曼和其他沙特官员一再强调，除非朝着巴勒斯坦建国迈出不可逆转的步骤，否则与以色列正常化外交关系不会发生。
Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and Turkey have been brewing for some time. In February, the former Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennett, declared that Turkey was “the next Iran”. More recently, on May 20, Israel’s minister of culture and sports, Miki Zohar, declared that Turkey should be treated as “an enemy state”.
与此同时，以色列和土耳其之间的紧张局势已经酝酿了很长时间。今年二月，前以色列总理纳法塔利·贝内特宣布土耳其是“下一个伊朗”。最近，以色列文化和体育部长米基·佐哈尔宣布，土耳其应被视为“敌对国家”。
And in Qatar, state officials remain furious with Israel for launching strikes on Doha in 2025 in an attempt to kill key Hamas figures who were based there. Qatar said it had been hosting Hamas figures as part of broader mediation efforts requested by the US and Israel.
而在卡塔尔，国家官员仍然对以色列在2025年试图刺杀驻扎在那里的关键哈马斯人物，对多哈发动袭击的行为感到愤怒。卡塔尔表示，它一直作为美国和以色列要求进行更广泛调解工作的一部分，接待哈马斯人员。
The strikes led to a now infamous photo released by the White House of Trump overseeing the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, while he called Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to apologise.
这些袭击导致了白宫发布了一张臭名昭著的照片，照片显示特朗普正在监督以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，而他正在致电卡塔尔首相谢赫·穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒塔尼，要求其道歉。
The idea of Iran becoming a signatory of the Abraham accords in the immediate aftermath of a devastating war is also fanciful. Tensions between Israel and Iran can be traced back to 1979, when a revolution toppled the Iranian monarchy and led to the establishment of an Islamic republic.
在毁灭性战争发生后，伊朗成为《亚伯拉罕协议》签署国的想法也是异想天开的。以色列和伊朗之间的紧张关系可以追溯到1979年，当时一场革命推翻了伊朗君主制，并建立了伊斯兰共和国。
Iran’s new leadership immediately provided support to the Palestinian cause and, in later years, to Hezbollah and other militias across the Middle East. In response, Israel has carried out military strikes on targets across Iran, assassinated key nuclear scientists and more. To suggest disregarding almost half a century of history with little to no efforts at reconciliation is farcical.
伊朗的新领导层立即支持巴勒斯坦事业，并在后来支持了中东地区的真主党和其他民兵组织。作为回应，以色列对伊朗境内的目标发动了军事打击，并刺杀了多名关键核科学家等。认为可以无视近半个世纪的历史，而没有任何和解努力，是荒谬的。
Why, then, has Trump suggested such a move? Perhaps it speaks to a need to assuage domestic constituencies within the US, or those in Israel, pushing for wider normalisation between Tel Aviv and the Arab and Muslim worlds.
那么，特朗普为什么要提出这样的举动呢？也许这反映了需要安抚美国国内选民，或以色列国内选民，推动特拉维夫与阿拉伯和穆斯林世界之间更广泛的正常化。
A second reading is that it is an attempt to prevent diplomatic progress on resolving tensions with Iran by putting an insurmountable obstacle in the way in the form of the demand for normalisation with Israel, perhaps reflecting the plurality of positions on the war found in Washington.
另一种解读是，这是试图通过要求与以色列正常化关系这一无法逾越的障碍，来阻止解决与伊朗紧张局势的外交进展，这可能反映了华盛顿对这场战争持多种立场。
A third view is that this is a move aimed at diminishing the scale of destruction and human suffering that has been wrought on Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, in the hope that a form of transactional politics – driven by trade and security – will prove sufficient. But, as Trump will find out, this is a longshot.
第三种观点是，此举旨在减轻加沙、西岸和黎巴嫩所遭受的破坏和人道苦难，希望一种由贸易和安全驱动的交易性政治能够奏效。但正如特朗普将发现的，这只是一个遥远的希望。
Simon Mabon receives funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Henry Luce Foundation.
西蒙·马邦（Simon Mabon）接受卡内基纽约公司和亨利·卢斯基金会的资助。
